German economic data overnight wasn’t strong enough to directly extend the early February push up onthe charts in the Euro and the bull camp has to be increasingly concerned about a loss of momentum on thecharts. In fact, seeing the US economy continue to soften, could mean that spillover slowing in the Euro zone isset to make the Euro overvalued, especially with that exchange rate this week sitting roughly 300 points abovethe early February lows. However, it is possible that the stall in the Euro over the last two weeks has beenprimarily the result of Ukraine fears and a significant moderating of that threat could take the lid off the Euro,which seemed to be headed to the 1.38 level as recently as February 19th. Up trend channel support is seendown at 1.3715 and a failure at that level could result in a definitive shift in opinion back toward the bear case.
Technical Outlook: Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversalaction if it occurs. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. Withthe close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The next upside objectiveis 137.9350. The next area of resistance is around 137.6800 and 137.9350, while 1st support hits today at137.1600 and below there at 136.8950.