Last week we showed the daily chart and what we view as a final A-B-C rally from late 2012 to Dec ‘13. The sell-off so far is not convincing and we continue to await an initial break of 1.3680 to suggest further weakness to 1.3477. Below the downtrend from 2008 and the 1.39 high our base case is took look for a new downtrend to unfold. (daily) S/t, a small double top is forming at 1.3773. Trendline support today is 1.3718 and below there is needed to clear a path to a critical support level near 1.3680. We expect further weakness today and a break of uptrend support to confirm that a larger trend change is taking place. (hourly) Conviction: Med Levels: Support – 1.3718, 1.3702, 1.3680 Resistance – 1.3775, 1.3820, 1.3839
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Nomura