The Yen slid to a fresh lower low for the move overnight which in turn suggests that the overall macroeconomic fear level is declining. From the recent high, the March Yen has given up roughly 143 ticks and to seefurther declines today in the Yen, probably requires a Non Farm payroll result that is strong enough to allow forhigher US equity market action before mid session. We aren’t sure where the Non farm payroll figure has to comein to foster economic optimism and a decline in safe haven, but we have to think that anything north of the priormonth’s gain of 74,000 is needed. Many traders think last months reading will be revised higher and perhaps thatis the source of the Fed’s insistence on more tapering ahead.
Technical Outlook: A crossover down in the daily stochastics is a bearish signal. Momentumstudies trending lower from overbought levels is a bearish indicator and would tend to reinforce lower price action.The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The swingindicator gave a moderately negative reading with the close below the 1st support number. The next downsidetarget is 97.22. Short-term indicators on the defensive. Consider selling an intraday bounce. The next area ofresistance is around 98.37 and 99.03, while 1st support hits today at 97.47 and below there at 97.22.