Euro has been consolidation via a bear triangle just below support at 1.3525. The triangle fits nicely as a wave-iv in a nearly complete decline but a move above 1.3539 negates the pattern in the near-term. On the downside, a move through 1.3500 supports further weakness to the wave-i=v symmetry target at 1.3418. If the triangle does unfold lower it will complete an impulse from 1.3739 and set the stage for a minor correction that could carry prices back to current levels again before the downtrend resumes. For today, topside resistance surfaces at 1.3573/77 and carries to 1.3582 where pivots and the 38.2% retrace align. Out bias is for a move lower through 1.3500. Conviction: Med/High Trade: Flat. Look to be short now that wave-(2) correction complete. Levels: Support – 1.3500, 1.3477, 1.3418 Resistance – 1.3539, 1.3573, 1.3577/82
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Nomura