GBP/USD Analysis

The pair closed in NY Thursday at $1.6491 after rate had recovered off an intraday low of $1.6445 (61.8% $1.6309-1.6667) to $1.6518, the correction aided by euro-sterling easing away from its end month induced rally to stg0.8269 to stg0.8215. As the cross pared back some of those losses during the NY afternoon (recovery high stg0.8226) so cable eased to $1.6472 before nudging higher into the close. This recovery extended in a Lunar New Year thinned Asian session, the rate moving up to challenge $1.6500 where it ran into fresh sell interest. Rate then reversed, posting an overnight low at $1.6266 before it settled around $1.6475/80 into Europe. Euro-sterling was confined to a range of stg0.8216-27 as it consolidated Thursday’s corrective pullback. A UK data light day (Lloyds business barometer at 0930GMT) with main influence this morning  to come from EZ inflation data at 1000GMT. End month flows at the fixes also in focus with most models favouring dollar demand, though the signal versus sterling said to be weaker than vs the euro. Cable support $1.6462 (76.4% $1.6445-1.6518) ahead of $1.6445. A break here to open a deeper move toward $1.6425/15 (50-dma $1.6414). Resistance $1.6500 ahead of $1.6520.