The divergence in momentum between the tops of wave-3 & 5 (12/3 & 1/2) do suggest that a larger wave-(3) rally from October is complete. Now prices are expected to correct in a time consuming and likely shalllow range prior to a resumption of the uptrend. The area expected to contain this pullback is the previous consolidation between 103.38/101.63; the 38.2% retrace is 102 falling within the pullback zone. (daily) S/t, the market respected channel support from early December so that uptrend will likely remain critical for the next few days near 104.50. Corrections are difficult to catalogue but for now we expect to see range failures between 105.15/40 on the topside and 103.90/75 on the downside. One possibility to look out for is a developing triangle that is in early stages. (hourly) Conviction: Medium Trade: Flat. Unattractive risk/reward, range expected Levels: Support – 104.67, 104.50, 103.91/77 Resistance – 105.12, 105.44, 106
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Nomura