$CAD is breaking out of a massive bullish basing pattern but we still need to see 2 weekly closes above the 1.07 level to confirm that the broader projection towards 1.17/19 is underway. We are hesitant to be long on the current breakout because the of the recent wave-4 triangle; we expected prices to thrust strongly towards 1.0818 but the Elliott count suggests that another correction is ahead. (weekly) The daily chart shows our expectations for another retracement to the previous 4th wave lows at 1.0603; that is also where the 38.2% retracement lies based on a 1.0862 high. Momentum divergences, after resolving bullish reversal signals, are now indicating bearish divergence. Support is 1.0825, resistance at 1.0862. (daily) Conviction: Medium/High Trade: Lighten up on longs from 1.0580/620 triangle low. Levels: Support – 1.0825, 1.0791, 1.0738 Resistance – 1.0862, 1.0870, 1.11
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Nomura