For the Euro area, the PMI flash estimate of 52.7 has been confirmed by the final estimate. New orders and new export orders both at around 54 points are pointing towards an ongoing rise in production over the coming months. At 49.9, the employment component is now only a tad below the expansion threshold.
Among the larger countries, the gap between Germany and France has even widened in December. Survey data certainly do not always paint a true picture of actual production, but for France, a decline in GDP in Q4 cannot be excluded. The more forward looking components are not pointing to a strong rebound in Q1, either. For France, 2013 was a lost year in economic terms. In contrast to that, both Italy and Spain saw PMI readings above 50. Export orders look promising for both countries. Employment in the manufacturing sector in Italy could soon rise (at a slow pace).
PMI manufacturing data for December 2013 (in brackets: Nov 2013 / December 2012)
- Euro area: 52.7 (51.6 / 46.1)
- Germany: 54.3 (52.7 / 46.0)
- France: 47.0 (48.4 / 44.6)
- Italy: 53.3 (51.4 / 46.7)
- Spain: 50.8 (48.6 / 44.6)
Nordea