Instant view:
The volatility in the Swedish manufacturing PMI continues. After the uptick in November to 56.0, the PMI fell back to 52.2 again in December. The sub-index for production fluctuates the most, down to 53.4 in December from the elevated level of 62.6 the previous month.
The index for order intake is more stable. It has been hovering around 55 for most of 2013, and remained close to 55 also in December (54.3), which suggests increased production going forward.
On the positive side, we also note that the employment index is close to 50 and that delivery times have increased. On the other hand, inventories seem to have increased, which may weigh on growth going forward.
The bottom line is that the recovery in the manufacturing industry is slow, reflecting weak global demand. The situation should improve going forward, but don’t expect any marked recovery.
Details, December:
PMI: 52.2 (Nordea and consensus 55, prior 56.0)
Order intake: 54.3 (prior 57.1)
Production: 53.4 (prior 62.6)
Employment: 48.2 (prior 50.3)
Inventories: 53.1 (prior 49.2)
Production plans 6 months ahead: 62.2 (prior 59.9)
Nordea