With few fresh developments from a region already in pre-holiday mode, the Euro is seeing significantlong liquidation pressure early in today’s trading. Near-term ECB rate cuts appear to be off the table for now and with peripheral EU difficulties staying out of market headlines, the Euro may be looking at a run up to the 140.00area early in the New Year. A positive reception for US data may cause fresh headwinds later this morning buteven with thin holiday markets, the Euro should remain fairly well supported going into the New Year’s holiday.The March Euro should find near-term support around the 137.40 level later this morning, and would likely needto see a fresh flare-up of EU risk concerns to see any large pullback from these current price levels. TheCommitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of December 24th for Euro showed Non-Commercialtraders were net long 31,138 contracts, an increase of 3,626 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short15,981 contracts, an increase of 6,020 contracts. The Nonreportable traders were net short 15,158 contracts, adecrease of 2,393 contracts. Non-Commercial and Nonreportable combined traders held a net long position of15,980 contracts. This represents an increase of 6,019 contracts in the net long position held by these traders.
Technical Outlook: A negative indicator was given with the downside crossover of the 9 and 18 barmoving average. The crossover up in the daily stochastics is a bullish signal. Positive momentum studies in theneutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price action. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a closeover the 9-bar moving average. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. Thenear-term upside target is at 138.7675. The next area of resistance is around 138.4350 and 138.7675, while 1stsupport hits today at 137.5250 and below there at 136.9475.