While finding moderate early pressure this morning, the Dollar looks to have gotten past last Friday’senormous whipsaw price action without too much lasting chart damage. Thin end-of-week trading conditions werea likely cause for the market’s severe volatility, but the Dollar’s inability to build upon Friday’s late recovery may bea sign that upcoming Fed tapering has already been “priced into” the market. This morning’s US data may providesome relief from early pressure, but the Dollar is still in need of consistent strength from US economic readings inorder to sustain upside momentum. Unless there is a fresh dose of overseas risk concerns to provide a source ofsafe-haven support, the Dollar will have a difficult time climbing back into positive territory later in today’s trading.The Dollar may slide down towards the 80.26 level later this morning, and remains somewhat on the defensiveheading into the end of this year.
Technical Outlook: The major trend has turned down with the cross over back below the 60-daymoving average. Momentum studies are rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher ifresistance levels are penetrated. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-daymoving average. The close below the 2nd swing support number puts the market on the defensive. The near-termupside target is at 81.14. The next area of resistance is around 80.88 and 81.14, while 1st support hits today at80.10 and below there at 79.57.