Today we are going to offer multiple scenarios for USDCAD and cover 3 different possibilities. The first wave count posits that waves-(1) to (3) from the September low are complete and a wave-(4) correction towards 1.0560 is targeting the previous wave-4 pivot low and 38.2% retrace. The alternate scenario, in purple, suggests that a large (a)-(b)-(c) correction is just now completing the 3rd leg down to 1.0300/0200. Wave-(a) was a 3 wave affair, wave-(b) was a 3 wave affair and now wave-(c) will be a sharp 5-wave decline to complete a wave-[2]. This alternate can not be discounted and will become the primary outlook if/when $cad breaks the critical 1.0500 level. (daily) S/t, both outlooks are supportive of further weakness at least to 1.0560 as the wave-5 ending diagonal/wedge has been followed by a textbook sharp decline. Resistance is 1.0628/53. (hourly) Levels: Support – 1.0575, 1.0560, 1.0500 Resistance – 1.0628, 1.0653, 1.0662
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Nomura