JPY is still holding the bullish up channel from the Oct 30 high but the test of the May high is forming a bearish shooting star candle in early NY trading and this is something to watch as the day progresses. Our favored wave interpretation is that JPY just completed wave-B in a wide range-bound A-B-C correction; the final wave-C down is projected to carry prices back to test the key 101.60 level with scope for a move as low as 101.15. The rally from 101.82 met symmetry targets this morning at 103.92 at channel flag resistance. A failure to hold above 103.39 will push this outlook in to the forefront and promote our call for a sharp drop in the coming week to complete a large wave-4 consolidation. Once another test near 101.60/15 is completed will shift focus back to our longer-term 105/106 targets for early next year. Levels: Support – 103.35, 102.16, 101.63 Resistance – 103.93, 104.06, 104.60
Nomura