ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

In the October ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), results imply inflation expectations of 1.4%, 1.5% and 1.6% for 2013, 2014 and 2015 respectively. Participants in the survey expect HICP inflation rates to stay below the ECB’s inflation target of below, but close to, 2% in coming two years. Estimates give no single indication of any major downside risks to inflation. The ECB’s fears of too low inflation rates are not shared by SPF participants. Estimates are roughly in line with the latest projections of the EU Commission of 1.5% and 1.4% for the coming two years. Admittedly, the survey was conducted between 16 and 22 October 2013 and therefore before the release of the October HICP inflation rate estimate of only 0.7% y/y.