Weaker NOK alongside rate cuts
We see tapering starting early next year, more or less at the same time as the market will start discounting rates cuts from Norges Bank. This could in other words turn into an environment with low risk appetite in combination with rate cuts. We forecast the top in EURNOK at 8.35 next summer, more or less at the same time as we see rates cuts coming.
SEK: It’s all about weakness
First “no taper”. Then an ECB rate cut. Is the Riksbank next in line to surprise in December? It can’t be ruled out. A EURSEK above 9 is coming closer.
The USD correction won’t last – flows support EUR
The EURUSD has reached our short-term (3M forecast) of 1.33 even quicker than expected. The concern over the sharp EURUSD appreciation has materialised as ECB surprised with a rate cut: we do not expect more from the bank. We keep the EURUSD unchanged, seeing more upside within 3M.
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Nordea