While starting out the new trading week by finding moderate pressure, the Dollar has still managed tohold onto a sizable portion of gains earned during last Thursday’s and Friday’s volatile trading sessions.Surprisingly strong Payroll numbers fed into support from a positive headline GDP reading to give the Dollar asignificant fundamental boost, but there may have enough questions raised with both readings to keep aDecember tapering move little more than a remote possibility. Even so, there is likely to be a growing contrastwith US economic data versus the Euro zone and Japan which will help to underpin the Dollar over the near term. The Dollar will still need to avoid dovish commentary from Fed officials over the next few sessions, but a lack offresh US data and scheduled Fed speakers today will help to limit downside pressure. The Dollar may findsupport around the 81.08 level later this morning, but should hold its ground near last week’s highs.
The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of November 5th for US Dollar showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 7,143 contracts, an increase of 6,057 contracts. The Commercial traders werenet short 10,826 contracts, an increase of 5,718 contracts. The Nonreportable traders were net long 3,683contracts, a decrease of 339 contracts. Non-Commercial and Nonreportable combined traders held a net longposition of 10,826 contracts. This represents an increase of 5,718 contracts in the net long position held by thesetraders.
Technical Outlook
USD (DEC): Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. Themarket’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The market has aslightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The near-term upside target is at 82.03. The market isbecoming somewhat overbought now that the RSI is over 70. The next area of resistance is around 81.69 and82.03, while 1st support hits today at 80.91 and below there at 80.46.