AUD/USD: The 21-DMA confirmed its significance as initial resistance capping the move higher again yesterday before the aussie headed sharply lower, pausing above the Nov 1 low. A close above the 21-DMA remains needed to end hopes of retests of the $0.9390 level, while a close above the 200-DMA ($0.9700) remains needed to see overall focus shift higher. Below $0.9390 remains needed to reconfirm bearish focus and see the $0.9221-86 region targeted.
R 4: $0.9624 – High Oct 25
R 3: $0.9585 – Hourly resistance Oct 28
R 2: $0.9545 – 21 day moving average
R 1: $0.9510 – Hourly resistance Nov 7
Latest price: $0.9451
S 1: $0.9424 – Low Nov 1
S 2: $0.9390 – Low Oct 4
S 3: $0.9369 – 55 day moving average
S 4: $0.9286 – Low Sept 30
NZD/USD: The failure to take out or even test the $0.8445 Oct 24 high sees the immediate focus shift back to a test of the Nov 5 low at $0.8262. A close below this level sees focus shift lower to tests of the key $0.8159-95 support region. A close above the Nov 6 high is now needed to kick start topside momentum and see focus shift higher once again. Daily tech studies continue to correct from oversold levels.
R 4: $0.8541 – Monthly High Oct 22
R 3: $0.8517 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 2: $0.8445 – High Oct 24
R 1: $0.8414 – High Nov 6
Latest price: $0.8318
S 1: $0.8262 – Low Nov 5
S 2: $0.8190 – Low Oct 30
S 3: $0.8181 – 200 day moving average
S 4: $0.8159 – Low Sept 16
AUD/NZD: The move lower paused ahead of the Oct 14 low, bouncing towards NZ$1.1388 that previously supported with overbought daily tech studies having corrected back to more neutral levels. A close above the 21-DMA remains needed to relieve the immediate bearish focus while back above the 100-DMA is needed to shift focus to tests of the Oct monthly highs. While the 21-DMA caps initial focus is on a test of the Oct 14 low with overall focus on tests of NZ$1.1192.
R 4: NZ$1.1527 – Hourly resistance Oct 29
R 3: NZ$1.1484 – 100 day moving average
R 2: NZ$1.1425 – 21 day moving average
R 1: NZ$1.1388 – Previous daily support now resistance
Latest price: NZ$1.1349
S 1: NZ$1.1302 – Low Oct 14
S 2: NZ$1.1294 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 3: NZ$1.1261 – Monthly Low Oct 3
S 4: NZ$1.1192 – Monthly Low July 31
AUD/JPY: The sharp move lower from ahead of the Y94.34 Oct 24 high has so far paused ahead of the 55-DMA, lower 21 day Bollinger band and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Focus has now shifted lower once more with a continuation lower favoured that sees the Y90.11-90.67 support region targeted. We will now look for a close back above the 200-DMA to end bearish hopes and see focus shift higher.
R 4: Y95.67 – Monthly High Oct 22
R 3: Y95.01 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 2: Y94.68 – 200 day moving average
R 1: Y94.34 – High Oct 24
Latest price: Y92.73
S 1: Y92.22 – 55 day moving average
S 2: Y92.14 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement Y86.43-95.67
S 3: Y91.32 – Hourly support Oct 10
S 4: Y91.05 – 50% Fibonacci retracement Y86.43-95.67
EUR/AUD traded at fresh 4 month lows overnight, dipping below the lower 21 day Bollinger band before bouncing sharply with the 21-DMA remaining as initial resistance. A close above the 21-DMA remains needed to ease the bearish focus, while back above the 100-DMA remains need to see focus return to tests of the A$1.4529-58 resistance region. The key to further topside remains the A$1.4558 highs from Sept 4 and 27.
R 4: A$1.4558 – High Sept 4 & 27
R 3: A$1.4529 – High Oct 29
R 2: A$1.4405 – 100 day moving average
R 1: A$1.4276 – 21 day moving average
Latest price: A$1.4188
S 1: A$1.4069 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 2: A$1.4056 – Low Nov 7
S 3: A$1.3874 – Monthly Low July 10
S 4: A$1.3802 – Low June 7
USD/KRW: The close above the 21-DMA has relieved the previous bearish pressure while a close above the Krw1069.3 level remains needed to see focus shift higher to layers of resistance in the Krw1078.3-1091.1 region including the falling daily channel top, 55-DMA and alternating daily support/resistance level. The 2013 low remains key support with a break lower targeting the falling daily channel base.
R 4: Krw1091.1 – Alternating daily support/resistance
R 3: Krw1081.1 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 2: Krw1078.3 – 55 day moving average
R 1: Krw1069.3 – Previous daily support now resistance
Latest price: Krw1066.0
S 1: Krw1059.0 – Low Nov 6
S 2: Krw1054.5 – 2013 low Jan 11
S 3: Krw1048.3 – 2011 low Aug 1
S 4: Krw1041.3 – Falling daily channel base
USD/SGD: A close below Tuesdays low remains needed to shift focus from a test of the Sgd1.2530-51 where the 55 and 200-DMA’s are located and back to a test of the May 10 low. Since breaking above the 21-DMA (Sgd1.2413) on Monday the pair has spiked below but failed to record a close below which will provide some support for the bullish case. A close below the Nov 5 low is needed to confirm a break of the 21-DMA
R 4: Sgd1.2530 – 200 day moving average
R 3: Sgd1.2496 – High Oct 11
R 2: Sgd1.2488 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 1: Sgd1.2468 – High Nov 7
Latest price: Sgd1.2449
S 1: Sgd1.2406 – Low Nov 5
S 2: Sgd1.2330 – Low May 10
S 3: Sgd1.2268 – Monthly low May 9
S 4: Sgd1.2224 – Low Jan 10
