Positive Japanese economic data has done little to put the brakes on the Yen’s pullback this week, as themarket may be heading towards a retest of its 50-day moving average later in today’s session. While globalmarkets are still some ways away from being in a full-scale “risk on” mood, the continued loss of safe-havensupport is keeping the Yen on the defensive in front of today’s events. With tonight’s Bank of Japan meetingresults already starting to cast a long shadow over the market, the Yen will need to see weak US data and adovish Fed to avoid further chart damage. The December Yen will find early support around the 101.68 area, andis likely to find additional pressure once today’s US data and Fed meeting are out of the way.
Technical Outlook
JPY (DEC): The major trend has turned down with the cross over back below the 60-daymoving average. The upside crossover of the 9 and 18 bar moving average is a positive signal. Momentumstudies are trending higher from mid-range, which should support a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The close below the 18-day moving average is an indication the intermediate-term trend has turneddown. The market is in a bearish position with the close below the 2nd swing support number. The near-termupside objective is at 102.89. The next area of resistance is around 102.30 and 102.89, while 1st support hitstoday at 101.44 and below there at 101.18.