EUR LIKELY TO FALL LEADING INTO ECB ON NOV. 7TH
* USD is mixed with domestic stories driving currencies. Today’s data includes: claims, Chicago PMI and Milwaukee ISM.
* CAD is strong leading into August’s GDP release, expected +0.1%m/m.
* EUR is weak after a collapse in CPI—disinflation pressure provides opportunity for ECB to warn against level of EUR (remember Feb?).
* EUR—favour being short 1.3670, target 1.3490, with a stop at 1.3820.
* GBP is flat after strong housing but soft confidence data.
* JPY in range. BoJ leaves policy unchanged & retains forecast for inflation at 2% target within two years. Expect more BoJ stimulus ahead.
* NZD rallies after RBNZ maintains hawkish tone but does warn on NZD.
* CNY is flat. Risk is today’s PMI release, consensus is 51.2 (9pm EST).