EURUSD
Topside: 1.3711
Downside: 1.3656, 1.3638, 1.3607
Recent range intact, market runs short USD’s and we may see some more lightening up ahead of payrolls. That about sums it up. 1.3650/56, 1.3711 immediate range and if we break downside pre data, I’ll be looking to pick up Euros at 1.3638 or 1.3607. Respect the topside break post payrolls but be cautious as accounts may question the validity of an out of consensus print. If we break and hold up, the techs call for a move to mid 1.38’s. Overall, expect a calm morning with further capitulation, then play the data. More as I see it.
GBPUSD
Topside: 1.6225, 1.6260
Downside:1.6064
Further consolidating recent gains, and we are now close to levels where I would consider edging back into some cash longs. Between current levels and 1.6064, GBPUSD should be well supported, and my intention is to run a small long GBPJPY position into today’s NFP release, and buy GBPUSD between 1.6050 and 1.6080 on a positive outcome. 1.6225 – 1.6260 should be very good resistance, and those that did not take some profit at the end of last week, will most likely trim at least, if we revisit that area in the days ahead. Client flows have been light thus far this week, though we have noted a little more buying of GBP from Real Money clients.
EURGBP
Topside: 0.8490, 0.8510
Downside: 0.8441 and 0.8422
Correcting upwards from Fridays .8441 lows. Meaningful resistance will be found between .8490 – .8510 and having missed the recent downmove, I will be looking to sell in that band if possible. .8441 and then .8422 will be good supports to the downside, and as recently highlighted, I expect momentum to increase if a close below that level can be achieved. A little more evidence of Leveraged selling was apparent on Monday, but in light volume only.
USDJPY
Topside: 99.01, 99.36
Downside: 97.56, 97.34
Grinding a little higher, as Specs and Leveraged clients build a small long for this afternoons release. I am also taking a small long position into the number myself – in part against the GBP and in part straight USDJPY. Overall, I see rangy conditions prevailing vs. the USD, but for X-JPY to begin trending higher makes sense to me, and GBP and AUD will be my preferred expressions. In the last 24h we have been better buyers for our client base, above 98.00, though my order book shows a balanced interest, with sell orders on the approach to 99.00 noted. Support, 97.56 (Fri low) and 97.34 (10.10 low) and resistance will be found at 99.01 (Thurs high) and 99.36 (23.9 high).
USDCHF
Topside: 0.9092
Downside:0.8978
Corporate selling has been the dominant theme in recent sessions, and that may well continue around this significantly important .9000 level. Overall though, we prefer to sell USD rallies, and whilst the CHF is not one of our favoured expressions, we expect USDCHF losses by virtue of EURUSD gravitating higher. Ex the Corporate interest, client activity has been muted in recent sessions, though we expect that to change around the near term reaction levels of .9092 (50pcnt Fib retrace of Thurs-Fri weakness) and .8978 (4.10 low).
AUD/NZD
AUD
Topside: 0.9680, 0.9701
Downside: 0.9643
Not a great deal to add from yesterday’s commentary. Immediate ranges intact and we go into payrolls with the market short of USD’S but possibly looking to lighten up. 0.9643 support with resistance setting up ahead of 0.9680 and 0.9701. Leverage selling mixed with real money type buying seems to be the complexion right now but volumes aren’t staggering. AUD/NZD remains buoyant and we stick to a 1.14 handle having tested 1.1443 yesterday and fallen back. I remain long the cross this side of 1.1380. NZD/USD should ghost other USD pairs with 0.8436-0.8520/30 initial range. It’s all about the payrolls.
CAD
Topside: 1.0310, 1.0356
Downside: 1.0276, 1.0246
Very subdued price action and good liquidity once again the name of the game here. Very good supply was noted yesterday but the market took the selling in its stride. We get CAD retail sales as the payroll data is released and the conditions for a re-price are waiting. 1.0276 strong support with 1.0310 and 1.0356 resistance. I don’t think many people will be waiting in the USDCAD panel on the data so there may be an opportunity here.
Skandies
Scandies: The only thing that stood out yesterday was Leverage buying of EUR/NOK when we dipped into a low 8.08 handle. 8.0730 remains important support for me short term for a move back towards 8.1600. EUR/SEK very quiet and has support at 8.7430, resistance at 8.8000 and change. The USD leg will drive these later. Watch support in USDSEK 6.3220 and 6.2730, the former the 2013 low. USD/NOK techs not so compelling in the light of recent large ranges.
Barclays