Safe-haven support may continue to drain from the Yen early this week, but there have been freshheadwinds from the Japanese data front as well that are weighing on prices. Disappointing trade numbers forSeptember, particularly from the exports side, have provided fresh evidence of the impact that a still-strong Yenhas made on the Japanese economy as there has been a negative trade balance for 15 months in a row. TheBank of Japan may have raised the economic outlook for all 9 regions of that nation, but their commitment toreaching a 2% inflation target will insure that their aggressive easing measures will not let up anytime soon. TheDecember Yen may drop down to the 101.77 level later this morning, and will need a fresh injection of safe-havensupport to put the brakes on this pullback.
Technical Outlook
JPY (DEC): The downside crossover (9 below 18) of the moving averages suggests adeveloping short-term downtrend. Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range should accelerate a movelower if support levels are taken out. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-barmoving average. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The next downsideobjective is now at 101.63. The next area of resistance is around 102.59 and 102.88, while 1st support hits todayat 101.97 and below there at 101.63.