We are often asked for our longer-term economic forecasts. In this bulletin we respond to those requests by extending our forecasts out to 2023.
Why 2023? Looking ahead ten years allows us to trace out New Zealand’s current economic cycle to its logical conclusion. The main drivers of that cycle – the Canterbury rebuild and the slow global recovery from the Global Financial Crisis – are unusually long-lived, and will still be shaping economic conditions in the second half of this decade.
Forecasting out ten years is also a way of articulating the economy’s ‘new normal’. It’s short enough to avoid ‘blue skies’ speculation, but long enough to take into account some important longer-term trends that are already underway, such as population aging, the rising Asian middle class, and changes in the international financial landscape since the financial crisis.
Read the full report: Economic Research
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