AUD/USD took out the 38.2% Fibonacci level and spiked above the gently rising 21 day upper Bollinger band and Sept monthly high yesterday. A break back below the Oct 7 low remains needed to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and relieve the immediate bullish focus that is targeting a test of the key $0.9665 resistance level. Layers of support remain in the $0.9221-86 region with a close below $0.9221 needed to shift focus back to 2013 lows
R 4: $0.9776 – 200 day moving average
R 3: $0.9716 – 50% Fibonacci retracement $1.0582-0.8850
R 2: $0.9665 – High June 6
R 1: $0.9573 – High June 18
Latest price: $0.9523
S 1: $0.9477 – Hourly support Oct 15
S 2: $0.9416 – 21 day moving average
S 3: $0.9390 – Low Oct 7
S 4: $0.9365 – Hourly support Oct 3
NZD/USD has finally broke free of the $0.8350-55 region with focus firmly on a test of the Sept monthly high and then the $0.8355-83 region above, last test in late April/early May. Initial support remains at the $0.8347 level on the hourly time frame but back below the 21-DMA is needed to relieve the immediate bullish focus. A close below $0.8159 remains needed to shift overall focus back to 2013 lows with layers of support noted in the $0.8159-33 region.
R 4: $0.8555 – High May 6
R 3: $0.8477 – High May 9
R 2: $0.8435 – Monthly high Sept 19
R 1: $0.8401 – High Sept 20
Latest price: $0.8389
S 1: $0.8347 – Hourly support Oct 14
S 2: $0.8314 – 21 day moving average
S 3: $0.8268 – Low Oct 11
S 4: $0.8233 – Low Oct 10
AUD/NZD: Lower levels will remain favoured until the pair can close above the NZ$1.1477 resistance level. The 55-DMA capped yesterday with layers of resistance noted in the NZ$1.1395-1.1477 region. Initial support remains at the Oct 14 low with layers of support noted in the NZ$1.1192-1.1261 region. Above NZ$1.1477 would see the immediate focus shift to tests of the 100-DMA (NZ$1.1571) and then the Sept monthly high above
R 4: NZ$1.1506 – Ichimoku cloud base
R 3: NZ$1.1477 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 2: NZ$1.1439 – High Oct 10
R 1: NZ$1.1395 – 55 day moving average
Latest price: NZ$1.1343
S 1: NZ$1.1302 – Low Oct 14
S 2: NZ$1.1261 – Low Oct 3
S 3: NZ$1.1215 – Monthly low Oct 20 & 30
S 4: NZ$1.1195 – Low Oct 1
AUD/JPY: The move higher paused at the Sept 20 high yesterday before giving back gains. Despite this we will continue to look for a close back below the Y92.39 support to confirm a break of the 21-DMA (Y92.46), relieving the bullish focus and seeing tests of the layers of support in the Y90.11-82 region targeted. While the Y92.39 support remains in play we will continue to target a test of the Y94.66-72 region with the 200-DMA noted at Y94.72.
R 4: Y96.02 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 3: Y95.93 – 50% Fibonacci retracement Y105.42-Y86.43
R 2: Y94.72 – 200 day moving average
R 1: Y94.09 – High Sept 20 / Oct 15
Latest price: Y93.58
S 1: Y93.29 – Low Oct 15
S 2: Y92.39 – Previous daily resistance now support
S 3: Y90.82 – Low Oct 2
S 4: Y90.67 – Low Sept 6
EUR/AUD: The break below the A$1.4275 level saw the pair trade at fresh 3 month lows with the focus having shifted lower to tests of the A$1.3802-74 support region. The 21 day lower Bollinger band is now heading lower with dips below expected until a close back above the Oct 14 high is seen. Overall a close above the key A$1.4558 resistance level is needed to shift focus back to retests of the 2013 highs above A$1.5000.
R 4: A$1.4558 – High Sept 4
R 3: A$1.4465 – High Oct 7
R 2: A$1.4384 – High Oct 14
R 1: A$1.4275 – Previous daily support now resistance
Latest price: A$1.4207
S 1: A$1.4145 – Low Oct 15
S 2: A$1.3956 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2222-1.5028
S 3: A$1.3874 – Monthly low July 10
S 4: A$1.3802 – Low June 7
USD/KRW has finally broken lower with the pair having traded at fresh 9 month lows. A close above the 21-DMA is now needed to relieve the immediate bearish focus while back above the Krw1081.1 level is needed to see focus shift higher to layers of resistance in the Krw1091.1-1095.0 region which includes the falling daily channel top and 55-DMA. While Krw1081.1 caps a test of the 2013 lows is now favoured.
R 4: Krw1105.6 – 200 day moving average
R 3: Krw1091.1 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 2: Krw1081.1 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 1: Krw1075.3 – 21 day moving average
Latest price: Krw1068.2
S 1: Krw1060.5 – Alternating daily support/resistance
S 2: Krw1055.8 – Falling daily channel base
S 3: Krw1054.5 – 2013 low Jan 11
S 4: Krw1048.3 – 2011 low Aug 1
The move lower for USD/SGD yesterday paused right on the June monthly low before recovering a little lost ground but now needs to close above the Oct 11 high to relieve the immediate bearish focus with a test of the Sgd1.2268 May monthly low currently targeted. Overall a close above the Sept 30 high is now needed to end bearish aspirations and shift immediate focus back to the Sgd1.2649 level with 55 and 100-DMA’s noted just below.
R 4: Sgd1.2581 – High Sept 30
R 3: Sgd1.2541 – High Oct 2 & 10
R 2: Sgd1.2496 – High Oct 11
R 1: Sgd1.2451 – Previous daily support now resistance
Latest price: Sgd1.2428
S 1: Sgd1.2407 – Monthly low June 7
S 2: Sgd1.2359 – Previous daily resistance now support
S 3: Sgd1.2330 – Low May 10
S 4: Sgd1.2268 – Monthly low May 9
