Friday we raised the case that a higher close would offer bullish confirmation of Thursday major reversal but there was no follow through. Therefore it is still possible that wave-E of the 4-month triangle is not complete. Once the bullish reversal is confirmed with a rally through 99.67 it raises the case that the pattern completed at 97.76 last week.
Our bullish base case views the pullback from Friday as a small wave-ii correction ahead of an eventual wave-ii rally that will break the triangle downtrend. The initial resistance levels are 99.18 & 99.67; the most critical level to confirm a major breakout is 100.61. The old pivot at 98.52 is near-term support (its also a 61.8% retrace). More critical support levels are the 97.76 low and triangle support at 97.50.
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