Following its push through range highs of the summer, EUR/USD is holding onto its recent gains and likely setting up for another leg higher. By historic standards, the move higher is not stretched and is potentially similar to the appreciation swings seen in 2009 and 2011. We cannot rule out a print of fresh 2013 highs. There is one concern in that EUR cross rates are currently largely mixed and the move is not broad based yet. To address this concern, we are monitoring EUR/CHF which is neatly poised on its 200-day average (1.23); while price stays above this level on a closing basis, the EUR is likely to stay buoyant in general.
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Barclays