The move higher for the aussie continues with the AUD/USD reconfirming its bullish focus and targeting a test of the key $0.9315-43 resistance region. Initial support is now noted at yesterday’s $0.9166 low with a close below needed to relieve the immediate bullish focus. Overall we will look for a close below the 21-DMA to end bullish hopes and shift focus back to the $0.8850-0.8895 region. Daily tech studies are well positioned for further topside.
R 4: $0.9424 – 100 day moving average
R 3: $0.9390 – 21 week moving average
R 2: $0.9343 – High Jun 26
R 1: $0.9315 – High July 24
Latest price: $0.9224
S 1: $0.9166 – Low Sept 9
S 2: $0.9116 – Low Sept 6
S 3: $0.9074 – Breakout level Sept 4
S 4: $0.9069 – 21 day moving average
NZD/USD has continued its move back towards the layers of resistance in the $0.8160-0.8211 region with the 200-DMA noted at $0.8189. The close above the 100-DMA should add support to the bullish case but we will look for a close below Monday’s low to indicate a false break. The $0.7926 level remains pivotal support with a close below this support needed to see the focus turn bearish and back to the $0.7685-0.7730 region.
R 4: $0.8160 – Monthly high Aug 19
R 3: $0.8136 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 2: $0.8064 – 38.2% Retracement of $0.8676-0.7685 move
R 1: $0.8056 – Alternating daily support/resistance
Latest price: $0.8016
S 1: $0.7960 – Low Sept 9
S 2: $0.7926 – Breakout level Sept 6
S 3: $0.7840 – Breakout level Sept 4
S 4: $0.7775 – Low Sept 3
AUD/NZD continued its retreat from within the Ichimoku cloud on Friday with the pair having paused ahead of the 21-DMA on Monday. The failure to hold above the NZ$1.1640 level that previously acted as resistance is of some concern for the pair as daily tech studies begin to correct from overbought levels. While the 21-DMA supports some hope remains for bounces back towards last week’s high but below the 21-DMA shifts focus back to the 2013 low.
R 4: NZ$1.1658 – High Sept 4
R 3: NZ$1.1633 – Hourly resistance Sept 4
R 2: NZ$1.1576 – High Sept 6
R 1: NZ$1.1543 – Hourly resistance Sept 6
Latest price: NZ$1.1504
S 1: NZ$1.1468 – 21 day moving average
S 2: NZ$1.1442 – Low Sep Aug 28 & 29
S 3: NZ$1.1361 – Low Aug 21
S 4: NZ$1.1265 – Low Aug 19
AUD/JPY has traded at the highest level since late July to start the new week as the pair continues to work its way higher towards the layers of resistance in the Y92.70-94.66 region and is continues to make headway within the Ichimoku cloud. At present a close back below the Sept 4 low is needed to end bullish aspirations and see the overall focus shift back to tests of the 2013 low.
R 4: Y93.79 – High June 10
R 3: Y93.43 – 100 day moving average
R 2: Y93.02 – High July 9
R 1: Y92.70 – High July 24
Latest price: Y91.88
S 1: Y90.64 – Low Sept 6
S 2: Y89.98 – Low Sept 4
S 3: Y89.00 – Hourly support Sept 2
S 4: Y88.00 – Hourly breakout level Sept 2
EUR/AUD: The $1.4445 resistance level remains somewhat pivotal with a close above needed to relieve the immediate bearish focus that is targeting a test of the $1.4165 July 17 low. Overall we will look for a close back above the 21 day moving average to shift focus back to the 2013 highs and the double daily top in the $1.5025-30 region. While the 21-DMA caps potential remains for a continuation lower that targets the $1.3810 June 14 low.
R 4: $1.4755 – Daily support/ resistance
R 3: $1.4660 – 21 day moving average
R 2: $1.4570 – High Sept 4
R 1: $1.4445 – Daily support/resistance
Latest price: $1.4361
S 1: $1.4275 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 2: $1.4260 – Low Sept 6
S 3: $1.4165 – Low July 17
S 4: $1.3810 – Low June 14
USD/KRW continued the move lower on Monday with the pair again trading at the lowest level since May 9. Initial resistance remains is now noted at the Krw1091.1 level with a close above needed to relieve the immediate bearish focus. Daily tech studies are in oversold territory and are expected to slow the move lower at some stage, but a close below the Krw1081.6 level would see focus firmly on retests of the 2013 low.
R 4: Krw1120.1 – 100 day moving average
R 3: Krw1108.4 – Daily support now resistance
R 2: Krw1105.1 – 200 day moving average
RES 1: Krw1091.1 – Daily support/resistance
Latest price: Krw1082.7
S 1: Krw1081.6 – Low Feb 28
S 2: Krw1077.0 – Low Feb 20
S 3: Krw1071.2 – Daily support/resistance
S 4: Krw1054.5 – 2013 low Jan 11
USD/SGD: The close below the Sgd1.2717 Aug 3 low has seen focus shift back to the Sgd1.2564 Aug monthly low with a break below then targeting the 200-DMA. We will look for a close back above Monday’s high to signal a false break lower. The Ichimoku cloud base comes in around Sgd1.2632 and it is worth noting that the pair has not closed below the cloud base since May.
R 4: Sgd1.2863 – 200 week moving average
R 3: Sgd1.2860 – 2013 high Aug 22
R 2: Sgd1.2812 – High Sept 6
R 1: Sgd1.2758 – High Sept 9
Latest price: Sgd1.2687
S 1: Sgd1.2632 – Ichimoku cloud base
S 2: Sgd1.2616 – 100 day moving average
S 3: Sgd1.2564 – Monthly low Aug 12
S 4: Sgd1.2479 – 200 day moving average