Market gyrations around news of possible military action in Syria have driven sentiment since last week. More recently, the pullback in oil prices suggests an easing of pressure and is allowing weakness to return for the JPY and CHF. EUR/CHF is trying to base above its 200-day average (which has held on several attempts this year), but with EUR/USD threatening to dip lower and EUR/GBP (Figure 1) also turning lower on strong monthly volume, we prefer suggesting CHF weakness against the USD instead. Short term, the risk is for a probe higher to 0.9400, although bigger picture, the risk is that the market is forming a more sustainable base at the lower end of a multi-year range.
Read the full report: Technical Research
Barclays