AUD/USD: The overnight move lower in the pair places the move higher targeting the $0.9315-43 region on hold with immediate focus now shifting to a test of the Aug 20 low and overall focus on the 2013 low and weekly channel base. A close back above yesterday’s high is now needed to signal a false break lower and return immediate focus to $0.9217-32 region.
R 4: $0.9246 – Ichimoku cloud base
R 3: $0.9217 – 55 day moving average
R 2: $0.9132 – 55 day moving average
R 1: $0.9100 – Hourly resistance Aug 20
Latest price: 0.9069
S 1: $0.9028 – Low Aug 20
S 2: $0.8970 – Low Aug 8
S 3: $0.8880 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 4: $0.8850 – 2013 low Aug 5
NZD/USD: The brake back below the Aug 15 support sees the immediate focus shift to layers of support in the $0.7913-33 region including the 55-DMA at $0.7913. A close below this region is needed to confirm the renewed bearish focus and see the 2013 lows targeted once again. Topside the pair now needs to close back above the $0.8050 level to signal a false break lower and see focus return to layers of resistance $0.8160-0.8212.
R 4: $0.8180 – 50% Fibonacci retracement $0.8676-0.7685
R 3: $0.8160 – High Aug 19
R 2: $0.8050 – Hourly support/resistance
R 1: $0.8003 – Hourly resistance Aug 20
Latest price: $0.7975
S 1: $0.7955 – Low Aug 20
S 2: $0.7933 – Low Aug 9 & 13
S 3: $0.7918 – Hourly resistance/support
S 4: $0.7869 – Ichimoku cloud base
The bounce in the AUD/NZD Tuesday has paused ahead of the 21-DMA and we will look for a close above the NZ$1.1398 resistance level as confirmation of a break higher. Immediate focus then shifts to retests of the NZ$1.1490 level. While the NZ$1.1490 level continues to cap further sideways trading within the recent NZ$1.1265-1.1490 range is expected to continue with a break of either side determining the next decent move.
R 4: NZ$1.1619 – Falling daily trend line
R 3: NZ$1.1490 – Hourly resistance Aug 5
R 2: NZ$1.1398 – Hourly resistance Aug 14
R 1: NZ$1.1392 – 21 day moving average
Latest price: NZ$1.1364
S 1: NZ$1.1265 – Low Aug 7
S 2: NZ$1.1233 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 3: NZ$1.1193 – 2013 low Aug 1
S 4: NZ$1.1015 – Weekly low Oct 13 2008
AUD/JPY: The sharp move lower confirms bearish focus with potential for a continuation lower that targets the falling daily channel base but for now we will target 2013 lows. The Y90.29 July 30 highs remain key resistance for aussie-yen this week with a close above needed to see focus shift back to retests of the layers of resistance in the Y91.90-93.80 region which includes previous daily highs, key moving averages and the falling daily trend line.
R 4: Y90.29 – High July 30
R 3: Y90.13 – High Aug 19
R 2: Y89.20 – Hourly resistance Aug 20
R 1: Y88.55 – Hourly resistance Aug 20
Latest price: Y88.19
S 1: Y87.64 – Low Aug 20
S 2: Y86.43 – 2013 low Aug 7
S 3: Y86.26 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 4: Y85.27 – Low Nov 28 2012
USD/KRW managed a spike above the 100-DMA yesterday before correcting sharply lower and looking like testing initial support. A break below Krw1111.8 sees pressure return to the more substantial support at Krw1108.3 with the 200-DMA below at Krw1103.7. Topside the Krw1130.1 level remains key with a close above needed to see initial focus shift to tests of the Krw1143.3 July 10 high with the Ichimoku cloud top noted just below at Krw1136.8.
R 4: Krw1130.1 – Daily support/resistance
R 3: Krw1128.0 – High July 18
R 2: Krw1124.0 – Ichimoku cloud base
R 1: Krw1123.0 – 100 day moving average
Latest price: Krw1116.7
S 1: Krw1111.8 – Low Aug 16
S 2: Krw1108.3 – Low Aug 8
S 3: Krw1105.0 – Daily resistance/support
S 4: Krw1103.7 – 200 day moving average
USD/SGD: Despite a higher high/low on Tuesday with the pair falling just short of the July 9 high, the bearish NY close is of some concern this morning and increases the risk of a deeper pullback that tests the Sgd1.2695 support. A break below this level is now needed to see immediate focus shift lower to the Sgd1.2550-65 support region. Topside a close back above the Sgd1.2770 hourly resistance level is needed to relieve the current bearish pressure.
R 4: Sgd1.2875 – 200 week moving average
R 3: Sgd1.2858 – 2013 high July 8
R 2: Sgd1.2813 – High July 9
R 1: Sgd1.2770 – Hourly resistance Aug 20
Latest price: Sgd1.2732
S 1: Sgd1.2695 – Low Aug 19
S 2: Sgd1.2680 – 21 day moving average
S 3: Sgd1.2620 – Hourly support Aug 13
S 4: Sgd1.2563 – 50% retracement of 1.2268-1.2858 move