AUD/USD paused at the 55-DMA yesterday before heading sharply lower and managing a bearish outside day. The Aug 15 low remains key support with a close below needed to shift overall focus back to retests of the 2013 low. We will now look for a close above the 55-DMA to reconfirm bullish focus that is currently targeting a test of the $0.9315-43 region that capped attempts higher in late June and for the entirety of July.
R 4: $0.9343 – High June 26
R 3: $0.9315 – High July 24
R 2: $0.9264 – Ichimoku cloud base
R 1: $0.9227 – 55 day moving average
Latest price: 0.9120
S 1: $0.9058 – Low Aug 15
S 2: $0.8970 – Low Aug 8
S 3: $0.8880 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 4: $0.8850 – 2013 low Aug 5
NZD/USD: The brief spike to fresh 2 month highs also saw the pair pop above the 21 day upper Bollinger band and Ichimoku cloud top. The move higher was short lived with a sharp reversal lower that has paused ahead of the Aug 15 support. Back below this level risks a deeper correction that targets the pivotal $0.9718 support level with a close below shifting the overall focus back to tests of the 2013 lows.
R 4: $0.8317 – High May 13
R 3: $0.8213 – 200 day moving average
R 2: $0.8180 – 50% Fibonacci retracement $0.8676-0.7685
R 1: $0.8160 – High Aug 19
Latest price: 0.8068
S 1: $0.8050 – Hourly support Aug 15
S 2: $0.7994 – Low Aug 15
S 3: $0.7933 – Low Aug 9 & 13
S 4: $0.7918 – Hourly res/sup
AUD/NZD managed the fifth consecutive day of lower lows and highs to start the week after having failed ahead of the key NZ$1.1490 resistance level last Monday. The 21-DMA capped on Monday last week and has guided the pair lower ever since. A close above the 21-DMA is needed to relieve the immediate bearish focus that is targeting a retest of the 2013 lows, while above NZ$1.1490 is needed to shift focus higher to the NZ$1.1640 level
R 4: NZ$1.1490 – Hourly resistance Aug 5
R 3: NZ$1.1403 – 21 day moving average
R 2: NZ$1.1398 – Hourly resistance Aug 14
R 1: NZ$1.1376 – High Aug 16
Latest price: 1.1292
S 1: NZ$1.1265 – Low Aug 7
S 2: NZ$1.1218 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 3: NZ$1.1193 – 2013 low Aug 1
S 4: NZ$1.1015 – Weekly low Oct 13 2008
AUD/JPY: The Y90.29 July 30 highs remain key resistance for pair this week with a close above needed to see focus shift back to retests of the layers of resistance in the Y91.90-93.80 region which includes previous daily highs, key moving averages and the falling daily trend line. Initial support is now noted at Friday’s Y88.62 low and remains significant, with a close below re-confirming bearish focus and potential retests of 2013 lows.
R 4: Y91.07 – High July 29
R 3: Y90.71 – 55 day moving average
R 2: Y90.29 – High July 30
R 1: Y90.13 – High Aug 19
Latest price: 89.00
S 1: Y88.62 – Low Aug 16
S 2: Y87.75 – Low Aug 9
S 3: Y86.43 – 2013 low Aug 7
S 4: Y86.22 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
USD/KRW: The 100-DMA continues to cap the pair with layers of resistance remaining in the Krw1123.0-1130.1 region including the 21 day upper Bollinger band (Krw1123.2) and the Ichimoku cloud base (Krw1124.0). The Krw1130.1 level remains key with a close above needed to see initial focus shift to tests of the Krw1143.3 July 10 high with the Ichimoku cloud top noted just below at Krw1137.2. While Krw1130.1 caps initial focus remains on Krw1108.3.
R 4: Krw1130.1 – Daily support/resistance
R 3: Krw1128.0 – High July 18
R 2: Krw1124.0 – Ichimoku cloud base
R 1: Krw1123.1 – 100 day moving average
Latest price: 1119.9
S 1: Krw1111.8 – Low Aug 16
S 2: Krw1108.3 – Low Aug 8
S 3: Krw1105.0 – Alternating daily resistance/support
S 4: Krw1103.5 – 200 day moving average
USD/SGD bounced sharply to start the new week with the move to fresh 4 week highs seeing the overall focus shift back to retests of the 2013 high. A close back below yesterday’s low is needed to relieve the immediate topside pressure with a bullish NY close noted. The 21 day upper Bollinger band comes in at Sgd1.2771 with oscillation around the upper band expected to continue. Overall back below the 21-DMA is needed to shift focus lower
R 4: Sgd1.2970 – Monthly high May 2012
R 3: Sgd1.2875 – 200 week moving average
R 2: Sgd1.2858 – 2013 high July 8
R 1: Sgd1.2813 – High July 9
Latest price: 1.2763
S 1: Sgd1.2695 – Low Aug 19
S 2: Sgd1.2675 – 21 day moving average
S 3: Sgd1.2620 – Hourly support Aug 13
S 4: Sgd1.2563 – 50% retracement of 1.2268-1.2858 move