The Dollar is finding modest early pressure this morning, as a relatively quiet summer weekend has provided little in the way of fresh direction for the market. Last Friday’s reversal from a new weekly low may give some technical underpinning to the Dollar, but mixed results with recent US economic data continue to create headwinds for any sort of extended recovery. While recent commentary from Fed officials and a rise in US longerterm yields have been more beneficial sources of strength on the tapering debate, the markets may be waiting for the latest FOMC meeting minutes later this week before giving the Dollar any meaningful support. A lack of fresh US data during today’s session may actually be to the Dollar’s benefit given their mixed results over recent weeks, but it will be difficult to lift clear of these recent price levels until the strength in US economic readings can catch up to Fed tapering rhetoric. The Dollar may find support around the 81.12 level later this morning, but should find enough support from stronger US debt yields early this week to avoid any large-scale downdraft. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of August 13th for US Dollar showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 15,461 contracts, a decrease of 9,613 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 21,700 contracts, a decrease of 9,747 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 6,239 contracts, a decrease of 134 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 21,700 contracts. This represents a decrease of 9,747 contracts in the net long position held by these traders.
Technical Outlook
USD (SEP): The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold levels, which is bullish and should support higher prices. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. The upside daily closing price reversal gives the market a bullish tilt. The market tilt is slightly negative with the close under the pivot. The near-term upside target is at 81.65. The next area of resistance is around 81.49 and 81.65, while 1st support hits today at 81.13 and below there at 80.91.