AUD/USD looks set to remain confined to the recent broad $0.9058-0.9190 range seen on Thursday to end the week with the risk now skewed towards a break higher that targets the key $0.9315-43 region that capped in late June and August. A close below yesterday’s low is needed to see focus shift lower once more and target retests of the 2013 low. A close above $0.9343 would see the pair target the $0.9665 level that capped in early/mid-June.
R 4: $0.9315 – High July 24
R 3: $0.9256 – 55 day moving average
R 2: $0.9221 – High Aug 12
R 1: $0.9190 – High Aug 15
Latest price: 0.9134
S 1: $0.9112 – Alternating hourly support/resistance
S 2: $0.9058 – Low Aug 15
S 3: $0.8970 – Low Aug 8
S 4: $0.8881 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
NZD/USD: The move higher paused at the key $0.8105 resistance that capped the recovery from the 2013 lows in late July with the 100-DMA noted just above. A close above would see the focus shift to the $0.8211-14 region with the 200-DMA noted at $0.8214. Layers of resistance remain in the $0.8105-0.8214 region but with daily tech studies heading higher and a close back below yesterday’s low needed to shift focus lower, a break higher is looking more likely. RES 4: $0.8180 – 50% Fibonacci retracement $0.8676-0.7685
R 3: $0.8154 – High May 29
R 2: $0.8114 – 100 day moving average
R 1: $0.8105 – Monthly high July 25
Latest price: 0.8068
S 1: $0.8050 – Hourly support Aug 15
S 2: $0.7994 – Low Aug 15
S 3: $0.7933 – Low Aug 9 & 13
S 4: $0.7918 – Hourly support
The move lower continues for the AUD/NZD following the failures ahead of the pivotal NZ$1.1490 resistance level and the 21-DMA. While NZ$1.1490 continues to cap, potential remains for a retest of the relatively flat 21 day lower Bollinger band and then the 2013 lows beneath. A close above the somewhat pivotal NZ$1.1490 resistance would confirm a break of the 21-DMA and a shift higher in focus to the layers of resistance in the NZ$1.1640-1.1748 region.
R 4: NZ$1.1490 – Hourly resistance Aug 5
R 3: NZ$1.1432 – 21 day moving average
R 2: NZ$1.1398 – Hourly resistance Aug 14
R 1: NZ$1.1353 – Hourly resistance Aug 15
Latest price: 1.1313
S 1: NZ$1.1305 – Low Aug 15
S 2: NZ$1.1265 – Low Aug 7
S 3: NZ$1.1220 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 4: NZ$1.1193 – 2013 low Aug 1
AUD/JPY recovery from 2013 lows managed to spike above the 21-DMA (Y89.68) on Thursday before a bearish correction that sees the pair close just above the day’s low. The correction lower sees initial focus return to tests of the Aug 9 low with overall focus on a retest of 2013 lows. We now look for a close above the July 30 high to see focus shift higher but note that layers of resistance remain in the Y90.29-93.80.
R 4: Y92.70 – High July 24
R 3: Y91.07 – High July 29
R 2: Y90.98 – 55 day moving average
R 1: Y90.29 – High July 30
Latest price: 88.88
S 1: Y88.80 – Low Aug 15
S 2: Y87.75 – Low Aug 9
S 3: Y86.43 – 2013 low Aug 7
S 4: Y86.32 – 100 week moving average
USD/KRW: The 100-DMA continues to cap dollar-won with layers of resistance remaining in the Krw1123.0-1130.1 region including the 21 day upper Bollinger band (Krw1124.8) and the Ichimoku cloud base (Krw1124.0). The Krw1130.1 level remains key with a close above needed to see initial focus shift to tests of the Krw1143.3 July 10 high with the Ichimoku cloud top noted just below at Krw1139.4. While Krw1130.1 caps initial focus remains on Krw1108.3.
R 4: Krw1130.1 – Daily resistance
R 3: Krw1128.0 – High July 18
R 2: Krw1124.0 – Ichimoku cloud base
R 1: Krw1123.0 – 100 day moving average
Latest price: 1117.7
S 1: Krw1113.5 – Low Aug 14
S 2: Krw1108.3 – Low Aug 8
S 3: Krw1105.0 – Alternating daily resistance/support
S 4: Krw1103.3 – 200 day moving average
USD/SGD: The recovery from ahead of the Sgd1.2550-63 region fell short of testing the Aug 1 highs with the 21 day upper Bollinger band capping the move. A bearish NY close sees the immediate focus return to a retest of the 21-DMA with a close below seeing focus return to layers of support in the Sgd1.2550-63 region and the 100-DMA now noted at Sgd1.2551. A break below Sgd1.2550 then sees focus shift lower to the Sgd1.2407-33 region with the 200-DMA at Sgd1.2433.
R 4: Sgd1.2881 – 200 week moving average
R 3: Sgd1.2858 – 2013 high July 8
R 2: Sgd1.2768 – High Aug 1
R 1: Sgd1.2753 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
Latest price: 1.2685
S 1: Sgd1.2667 – 21 day moving average
S 2: Sgd1.2620 – Hourly support Aug 13
S 3: Sgd1.2563 – 50% retracement of 1.2268-1.2858 move
S 4: Sgd1.2551 – 100 day moving average.