The Dollar has been able to make a modest recovery after reaching a new 7-week low this morning, but clearly needs to find much more help both at home and abroad to recover from post-Payroll number chart damage. Last night’s stronger than expected Chinese Trade numbers, particularly from the Imports side, has provided a sense of relief for many global markets today and in turn that has further eroded the Dollar’s safehaven support. There has also been relatively little in the way of US economic data this week to offset last Friday’s lukewarm Payroll readings, although today’s Jobless Claims data should provide a boost to the Dollar later this morning if either the Initial and Ongoing readings are able to reach a new low. Fed officials have been talking up near-term tapering prospects this week but until US data catches up to their rhetoric, the Dollar will have a difficult time lifting clear of this recent price range. The Dollar may rebound to the 81.41 area after the Jobless Claims numbers are released, and may need to see fresh overseas risk concerns in order to fully put the brakes on this current downdraft.
Technical Outlook
USD (SEP): A crossover down in the daily stochastics is a bearish signal. Daily stochastics are trending lower but have declined into oversold territory. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. The market’s close below the 1st swing support number suggests a moderately negative setup for today. The next downside target is 80.82. The next area of resistance is around 81.58 and 82.04, while 1st support hits today at 80.98 and below there at 80.82.