AUD/USD traded at fresh 2013 lows this morning and the lowest level traded since late Aug 2010. The move lower is currently targeting the monthly lows from Aug 2010 noted at $0.8771 as daily slow stochastic and RSI indicators unwind their overbought condition. Layers of resistance have developed on the hourly time frame but the $0.9315-43 region remains key for the pair with a close above needed to end the current bearish move.
R 4: $0.9315 – High July 24
R 3: $0.9210 – High July 30
R 2: $0.9100 – Hourly resistance July 30
R 1: $0.9047 – Hourly resistance July 31
Latest price: 0.8946
S 1: $0.8924 – 2013 Low Aug 1
S 2: $0.8771 – Monthly low Aug 25 2010
S 3: $0.8634 – Low July 19 2010
S 4: $0.8317 – Low July 1 2010
NZD/USD: Layers of support remain in the $0.7903-0.7934 region including the Ichimoku cloud base ($0.7929), previous daily lows and the 21-DMA. We continue to look for a close below the $0.7903 level to shift focus away from retests of the July monthly highs and back to tests of the 2013 low. Correcting overbought daily tech studies remain a concern for the pair and may slow the move higher for now.
R 4: $0.8211 – High May 21
R 3: $0.8154 – High May 29
R 2: $0.8105 – High July 25 & 26
R 1: $0.8039 – High July 30
Latest price: 0.7960
S 1: $0.7934 – Low July 31
S 2: $0.7903 – 21 day moving average
S 3: $0.7844 – Low July 17
S 4: $0.7733 – Low July 15
AUD/NZD traded at the lowest level since Oct 2008 overnight as it continues to target a continuation lower that tests the 2008 low. Initial resistance is noted on the hourly time frame at NZ$1.1296 with support not seen until the NZ$1.1135 low from late Oct 2008. We continue to look for a close back above NZ$1.1493 to relieve immediate bearish focus while a close back above NZ$1.1640 is needed to shift overall focus higher once more.
R 4: NZ$1.1493 – High July 26
R 3: NZ$1.1394 – Previous daily supt now res
R 2: NZ$1.1375 – Hourly resistance July 30
R 1: NZ$1.1296 – Previous hourly sup now res
PRICE: 1.1230
S 1: NZ$1.1135 – Low Oct 29 2008
S 2: NZ$1.0936 – Low Oct 24 2008
S 3: NZ$1.0893 – Low Oct 16 2008
S 4: NZ$1.0654 – 2008 Low Oct 10
AUD/JPY: The move lower continues with fresh 2013 lows again this morning after dipping below the Dec 21 2012 support. A close back above the Y88.68 level that previously supported is needed to relieve the immediate bearish focus that is now targeting a test of the Jpy85.27 support. Overall we are targeting a sustained move lower that tests the falling daily channel base coming in around Jpy83.73 today.
R 4: Jpy91.37 – Previous daily sup now res
R 3: Jpy91.07 – High July 29
R 2: Jpy90.29 – High July 30
R 1: Jpy88.68 – Previous daily sup now res
Latest price: 87.43
S 1: Jpy87.21 – 2013 Low Aug 1
S 2: Jpy85.27 – Low Nov 28 2012
S 3: Jpy83.73 – Falling daily channel base
S 4: Jpy81.99 – Low Nov 9 2012
USD/KRW: Despite taking out the 21 and 100-DMA’s yesterday the pair failed to close above either of them and also remained capped ahead of the key Krw1130.1 level. A close above the Krw1130.1 level remains key to shifting focus higher. Failure to close above the 100-DMA sees the immediate bearish focus remaining on tests of the 200-DMA. Correcting oversold daily tech studies are a concern and could slow the move lower for now.
R 4: Krw1153.2 – High July 5
R 3: Krw1143.3 – High July 10
R 2: Krw1130.1 – Previous daily sup now res
R 1: Krw1128.0 – High July 18
Latest price: 1121.2
S 1: Krw1108.4 – Low June 7
S 2: Krw1102.0 – 200 day moving average
S 3: Krw1097.1 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement 1054.5-1166.0
S 4: Krw1081.6 – Low Feb 28
USD/SGD finally took out the much talked about Sgd1.2721 resistance level overnight but the lack of follow through is a concern. As a result we will look for a close back below yesterday’s low to signal a false break and see the immediate focus shift back to the rising daily trend line off the May monthly low. For now focus remains on the 2013 high with the 200-WMA noted above and it should be noted the pair has not traded above the 200-WMA since early 2009.
R 4: Sgd1.2894 – 200 week moving average
R 3: Sgd1.2858 – 2013 high July 8
R 2: Sgd1.2805 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 1: Sgd1.2753 – High July 31
Latest price: 1.2709
S 1: Sgd1.2699 – Low July 31
S 2: Sgd1.2625 – Rising daily trend line
S 3: Sgd1.2563 – 50% retracement of 1.2268-1.2858 move
S 4: Sgd1.2550 – Low June 19