AUD/USD paused ahead of the July 11 high overnight before closing below the previous day’s NY close. Stops remain above both the $0.9303 and $0.9343 levels and we continue to look for a close above the $0.9343 level to signal a shift in focus back to the June 6 high. It is worth noting that the pair found support ahead of the 21-DMA yesterday with a close back below needed to confirm the focus on retests of the 2013 low.
R 4: $0.9665 – High June 6
R 3: $0.9609 – 38.2% Retracement of 1.0582-0.9008 move
R 2: $0.9343 – High June 26
R 1: $0.9303 – High July 11
Latest price: 0.9222
SUP 1: $0.9194 – Low July 17
SUP 2: $0.9150 – Hourly support July 16
SUP 3: $0.9087 – Low July 15
SUP 4: $0.9008 – 2013 low July 12
NZD/USD remains little changed from yesterday’s NY closing level after spiking a little closer to the key $0.7967 resistance level overnight. A close above this level would see the immediate focus shift higher to tests of the $0.8154 level. It should be tough going topside above the $0.8154 level as layers of resistance are noted above including the 100 and 200-DMA’s. While the $0.7967 level caps potential remains for retests of the $0.7685 level.
R 4: $0.8154 – High May 29
R 3: $0.8064 – 38.2% Retracement of 0.8676-0.7685 move
R 2: $0.8052 – High June 19
R 1: $0.7967 – High July 11
Latest price: 0.7903
S 1: $0.7844 – Low July 17
S 2: $0.7733 – Low July 15
S 3: $0.7685 – 2013 low June 21
S 4: $0.7621 – Low June 8 2012
AUD/JPY continues to work its way back towards the top of the recent well worn Jpy88.80-93.00 range. Jpy93.02-09 region is key resistance with the 200-DMA noted at Jpy93.09, and while it remains in play we will look for a test and eventual break of the Jpy88.82 support level and a continuation lower that sees the Jpy85.27 support as the overall target. A close above the 200-DMA sees overall focus shift to the falling daily trend line.
R 4: Jpy94.87 – Falling daily trend line
R 3: Jpy94.66 – High June 6
R 2: Jpy93.79 – High June 10
R 1: Jpy93.09 – 200 day moving average
Latest pric: 91.95
S 1: Jpy91.48 – Low July 17
S 2: Jpy90.82 – Low July 16
S 3: Jpy89.61 – Low June 25
S 4: Jpy89.30 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
USD/KRW paused ahead of the 50% Fibonacci support yesterday before bouncing a little but the pair needs to close back above the Krw1130.1 resistance level to relieve the immediate bearish focus. Of some concern are the oversold daily slow stochastic, momentum and RSI indicators which may hamper the immediate continuation lower. Overall, while Krw1130.1 caps we favour a test of the 200-DMA
R 4: Krw1139.9 – 21 day moving average
R 3: Krw1130.1 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 2: Krw1127.2 – High July 11
R 1: Krw1121.8 – High July 16
Latest price: 1118.5
S 1: Krw1114.6 – Low July 16
S 2: Krw1110.2 – 50% Fibonacci retracement 1054.5-1166.0
S 3: Krw1108.4 – Low June 7
S 4: Krw1101.4 – 200 day moving average
USD/SGD briefly dipped below the rising daily trend line yesterday before recovering a little lost ground and bouncing from ahead of the key Sgd1.2550 support. We will continue to favour further spikes lower and a break below the Sgd1.2550 support until the pair can manage a close back above the Sgd1.2721 resistance level from July 11. A break below the Sgd1.2550 support sees overall focus shift back to the Sgd1.2386-07 region.
R 4: Sgd1.2909 – 200 week moving average
R 3: Sgd1.2858 – 2013 high July 8
R 2: Sgd1.2721 – High July 11
R 1: Sgd1.2682 – High July 15
Latest price: 1.2604
S 1: Sgd1.2550- Low June 19
S 2: Sgd1.2508 – 100 day moving average
S 3: Sgd1.2482 – Low June 13
S 4: Sgd1.2407 – Low June 7