USD/JPY Analysis

The pair closed in NY Tuesday at Y100.61 after rate had taken out barriers at Y100.00 and Y100.50-60 as it pushed to a session high of Y100.73. Early demand for dollar-yen into Asia saw rate extend recovery to Y100.86 with market aware that the Y101.00 level holds larger barrier interest with decent defence sell interest noted ahead, the level also holding the strike of expiring plain vanilla options for today’s NY cut, with similar interest also noted for Thursday and Friday. Dollar-yen held firm into the Tokyo fix before turning lower, Tuesday’s rise in dollar-yen had market expecting Nikkei to track this move but disappointed, quickly turning negative which took rate down to Y100.44. Recovery to Y100.80 into the Asian afternoon before it settled around Y100.70 ahead of Europe. Demand seen in place from Y100.40 through to Y100.20, though CTA stops seen mixed in below Y100.25. Stronger Japanese importer demand now seen placed into Y100.00, stops placed on a break of Y99.90. Resistance, as noted above, seen into barrier interest at Y101.00, with tech traders expecting decent resistance to emerge into the Ichimoku cloud top at Y101.30.