FX Strategy
• The AUD has fallen 8% on a trade-weighted basis since its 12 April high. Roughly speaking, we’d attribute 2/3 of this decline to domestic factors (economic slowdown, RBA rate cut, lower inflation, commodity prices) and 1/3 to a generally stronger USD
• The AUD is showing some tentative signs of stabilisation in the 0.96 area. In the absence of domestic shocks, the near-term outlook hinges crucially on US economic data
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