AUD/USD: The $0.9695 resistance level confirmed its significance last week with the AUD/USD having repeatedly failed on attempts to break above and stops remaining above this level. A close above $0.9695 is needed to indicate that a correction higher is underway with the immediate focus then shifting to a test of the May 21 high. Overall a close above the $1.0096 level is needed to see focus return to the $1.0380-00 region.
R 4: $0.9918 – High May 15
R 3: $0.9838 – High May 21
R 2: $0.9770 – High May 23
R 1: $0.9695 – High May 28
Latest price: 0.9600
S 1: $0.9530 – Low May 29
S 2: $0.9488 – Low Oct 5 2011
S 3: $0.9417 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 4: $0.9397 – 2011 low Oct 4
NZD/USD: The pair dipped to fresh 2013 lows and the lowest level traded since Sept 2012 to end the week and remains heavy. The pair now needs to close back above the May 29 high to relieve the bearish focus that is targeting an overall move lower that tests the 200-WMA. The $0.7917 support from Sept 5 2012 is now the immediate focus to start the week.
R 4: $0.8287 – 200 day moving average
R 3: $0.8211 – High May 21
R 2: $0.8154 – High May 29
R 1: $0.8010 – Previous daily support now resistance
Latest price: 0.7954
S 1: $0.7942 – Monthly low May 31
S 2: $0.7917 – Low Sept 5 2012
S 3: $0.7813 – Low July 25 2012
S 4: $0.7755 – 200 week moving average
AUD/JPY: The cross broke to fresh 3 month lows to end the week and the month and now needs to close back above the Jpy97.93 level to relieve the immediate bearish focus while back above the 21-DMA remains needs to shift focus back to the Jpy102.30-60 region. Immediate focus remains on a test of the falling daily channel base while the overall focus is on the 200-DMA.
R 4: Jpy101.6 – High May 15
R 3: Jpy99.92 – 21 day moving average
R 2: Jpy99.48 – High May 24
R 1: Jpy97.93 – High May 30
Latest price: 96.55
S 1: Jpy96.09 – Low May 31
S 2: Jpy93.84 – Falling daily channel base
S 3: Jpy92.50 – Low Jan 16
S 4: Jpy91.34 – 200 day moving average
USD/KRW: The pair continues to hold above the key Krw1120.4 support level as daily slow stochastic, RSI and momentum studies slowly correct from overbought levels and are hinting at a correction back towards the 200-DMA. A close below the 200-DMA is needed to shift focus back to the Krw1077-81 region. While the pair holds above the key support potential does still remain for a retest of the 2013 highs although this is looking less likely at the moment.
R 4: Krw1153.5 – High July 25 2012
R 3: Krw1147.2 – 2013 high Apr 8
R 2: Krw1142.7 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 1: Krw1133.6 – High Apr 12
Latest price: 1131.5
S 1: Krw1120.4 – Low May 28
S 2: Krw1110.5 – Low May 21
S 3: Krw1105.0 – Previous daily resistance now support
S 4: Krw1099.5 – 200 day moving average
USD/SGD: Following Thursday’s move to fresh two week lows USD put in an inside day to end the week. We will continue to look for a move to fresh 2013 highs to signal last weeks dip as a false break and see focus shift higher to the 200-WMA at Sgd1.2969. For now we will continue to favour a dip back to the Sgd1.2442 level where the 61.8% Fibonacci level is noted. Daily slow stochastic, RSI and momentum indicators are still indicating a correction lower is due.
R 4: Sgd1.2846 – High June 25 2012
R 3: Sgd1.2781 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 2: Sgd1.2748 – High July 6 2012
R 1: Sgd1.2728 – High July 12-13 2012
Latest price: 1.2635
S 1: Sgd1.2570 – Low May 30
S 2: Sgd1.2507 – Low May 17
S 3: Sgd1.2442 – 61.8% retracement of 1.2268-1.2699 move
S 4: Sgd1.2414 – 100 day moving average