AUD/USD: The pair dipped below parity in NY on Friday and opened the new week in Asia around the $1.0015 level and looking heavy. The $1.0096-55 resistance region is now key with a close above needed to relieve the immediate bearish pressure, while back above the falling daily channel top is needed to shift focus higher. For now a retest of the 200-WMA is the initial target while overall potential exists for a test of $0.9584 2012 lows.
R 4: $1.0282 – Falling daily channel top
R 3: $1.0253 – High May 9
R 2: $1.0155 – Previous hourly support now resistance
R 1: $1.0096 – High May 10
Latest price: 1.0000
S 1: $0.9964 – Low May 10
S 2: $0.9922 – Low June 14 2012
S 3: $0.9862 – 200 week moving average
S 4: $0.9862 – 200 week moving average
NZD/USD: The cross traded at fresh 7 week lows in NY on Friday, dipping below the 200-DMA before closing marginally back above. Initial support is now noted at the $0.8355 level with a close above needed to relieve the immediate bearish pressure that is targeting a retest of the 2013 lows. Overall we need to see a close back above the May 9 high to see focus turn to retests of the 2013 high once again.
R 4: $0.8455 – High May 6
R 3: $0.8477 – High May 9
R 2: $0.8418 – High May 10
R 1: $0.8356 – Previous daily support now resistance
Latest price: 0.8290
S 1: $0.8286 – 200 day moving average
S 2: $0.8261 – Low May 10
S 3: $0.8218 – Rising daily trend line
S 4: $0.8164 – 2013 low Mar 13 2012
AUD/JPY: The rising daily trend line off the Nov lows remains key support for the AUD/JPY with immediate focus remaining on a test of the Jpy102.30-102.90 region while it supports. We need to see a close above the Jpy102.90 level to see the focus return to retests of the 2013 high. A close below the rising daily trend line remains needed to end topside hopes and see overall focus return to
the Jpy92.50 level.
R 4: Jpy105.4 – 2013 high Apr 11
R 3: Jpy103.8 – High Apr 15
R 2: Jpy102.9 – High Apr 22
R 1: Jpy102.3 – High May 3
Latest price: 101.90
S 1: Jpy100.5 – Rising daily trend line
S 2: Jpy99.75 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 3: Jpy98.94 – Low Apr 16
S 4: Jpy97.09 – 100 day moving average
USD/KRW: The pair took out layers of resistance to end the week with overall focus having shifted back to the 2013 high. Initial support is now noted at the Krw1105.0 level that was previously seen as resistance with a close back below the 200-DMA needed to shift focus lower once more. The daily slow stochastic, RSI and momentum indicators are all correcting from oversold levels and are supportive of a continuation higher.
R 4: Krw1147.2 – 2013 high Apr 8
R 3: Krw1133.6 – High Apr 12
R 2: Krw1125.5 – High Apr 18
R 1: Krw1116.7 – High May 10
Latest price: 1110.80
S 1: Krw1105.0 – Previous daily resistance now support
S 2: Krw1100.2 – 200 day moving average
S 3: Krw1081.6 – Low Feb 28
S 4: Krw1077.0 – Low Feb 20
USD/SGD: The cross bounced sharply on Friday, spiking above the falling daily channel to and the Ichimoku cloud base (Sgd1.2390) before closing above the 21-DMA and 100-DMA. We now look to the 100-DMA as initial support but a close back below Friday’s low is needed to shift focus lower once more. Following the sharp move higher on Friday the immediate focus has shifted to tests of the Apr 24 high while overall focus is now on a retest of the 2013 high.
R 4: Sgd1.2529 – 2013 high Mar 20
R 3: Sgd1.2461 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 2: Sgd1.2436 – High Apr 24
R 1: Sgd1.2407 – High May 10
Latest price: 1.2382
S 1: Sgd1.2363 – 100 day moving average
S 2: Sgd1.2330 – Low May 10
S 3: Sgd1.2285 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 4: Sgd1.2268 – Low May 9