Summary and outlook
– The global recovery stalled in April. Momentum in OECD’s leading indicator was flat and PMIs were soft in the US, China and Europe. The data is in line with the expectation of some slowing in global growth driven mainly by a soft patch in the US recovery.
– However, we expect the current weakness in US data to be short-lived due to strong fundamentals, lower oil prices and lean inventories. The euro area remains the weak link in the global economy but we look for euro PMIs to resume a gradual rise over coming quarters. The Chinese recovery is weaker than expected but, nevertheless, intact. We expect Chinese PMI to see a lift higher over the summer.
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Danske Bank