AUD/USD: The pair continued its move lower overnight, trading at fresh 2013 lows and the lowest level since late June 2013, spiking below the 21 day lower Bollinger band ($1.0103) and falling marginally short of the falling daily channel base. The $1.0155 level that prompted the bounce back to $1.0253 is now seen as initial resistance with a close above needed to relieve the immediate bearish focus that is now targeting the 200 week moving average
R 4: $1.0382 – 100 day moving average
R 3: $1.0323 – High May 3
R 2: $1.0253 – High May 9
R 1: $1.0155 – Previous hourly support now resistance
Latest price: 1.0085
S 1: $1.0035 – Falling daily channel base
S 2: $0.9972 – Low June 25 2012
S 3: $0.9922 – Low June 14 2012
S 4: $0.9862 – 200 week moving average
NZD/USD: The cross dipped into the $0.8337-75 support region overnight which includes the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the $0.8164-0.8676 move at $0.8360. We will continue to look for a close below this region to confirm the overall focus on a retest of the 2013 lows. A close back above yesterday’s high is now needed to relieve the immediate bearish pressure while above the May 6 high is needed to shift focus higher once more.
R 4: $0.8612 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 3: $0.8583 – High Apr 30
R 2: $0.8555 – High May 6
R 1: $0.8477 – High May 9
Latest price: 0.8387
S 1: $0.8337 – Low Mar 25
S 2: $0.8292 – Previous daily resistance now support
S 3: $0.8286 – 200 day moving average
S 4: $0.8218 – Rising daily trend line
AUD/JPY: Once again AUD has bounced from a dip back towards the rising daily trend line off the Nov lows with immediate focus returning to the Jpy102.30-102.90 region. We need to see a close above the Jpy102.90 level to see the focus return to retests of the 2013 high. A close below the rising daily trend line remains needed to end topside hopes but this is now looking less likely with the topside the path of least resistance.
R 4: Jpy105.4 – 2013 high Apr 11
R 3: Jpy103.8 – High Apr 15
R 2: Jpy102.9 – High Apr 22
R 1: Jpy102.3 – High May 3
Latest price: 101.45
S 1: Jpy100.4 – Rising daily trend line
S 2: Jpy98.94 – Low Apr 16
S 3: Jpy96.95 – 100 day moving average
S 4: Jpy96.30 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
USD/KRW: After testing the Feb 28 lows on Wednesday the pair has bounced sharply to test the 200-DMA (Krw1100.2) overnight as oversold daily tech studies look to correct. We will now look for a close back above the Krw1110.1 Apr 18 high, with the 21-DMA also noted around this level, to indicate a bigger bounce that has the potential to retest the 2013 highs. On the downside the Krw1077.0-1081.6 region remains key support.
R 4: Krw1136.6 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 3: Krw1125.5 – High Apr 18
R 2: Krw1110.1 – High Apr 29
R 1: Krw1105.0 – High Apr 30
Latest price: 1097.5
S 1: Krw1081.6 – Low Feb 28
S 2: Krw1077.0 – Low Feb 20
S 3: Krw1071.2 – Previous daily resistance now support
S 4: Krw1054.5 – 2013 Low Jan 11
USD/SGD: Following the move down to the falling daily channel base on Wednesday USD has bounced sharply back towards layers of resistance in the Sgd1.2355-61 region which include the 21-DMA (Sgd1.2355) and the 100-DMA (1.2361). When combined with the correction from oversold levels on the daily RSI, Slow Stochastic and Momentum studies a test of the falling daily channel top is now expected, although above Sgd1.2355-61 is needed to confirm this.
R 4: Sgd1.2461 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 3: Sgd1.2436 – High Apr 24
R 2: Sgd1.2395 – Falling daily channel top
R 1: Sgd1.2359 – High May 2
Latest price: 1.2341
S 1: Sgd1.2260 – Falling daily channel base
S 2: Sgd1.2224 – Low Jan 10
S 3: Sgd1.2198 – 2013 low Jan 2
S 4: Sgd1.2169 – Low Dec 18 2012