AUD/USD: The pair bounced back towards the $1.0329 level that previously supported on the hourly time frame to end the week but still needs to close above the layers of resistance in the $1.0382-97 region to shift focus higher. While the $1.0382-97 region continues to cap we will look for an overall move that retests the 2013 lows. While the $1.0329 level caps the immediate focus remains on retests of the double daily bottom at $1.0222.
R 4: $1.0478 – Previous daily support now resistance
R 3: $1.0397 – 200 day moving average
R 2: $1.0353 – 21 day moving average
R 1: $1.0329 – Previous hourly support now resistance
Latest price: 1.0299
S 1: $1.0222 – Low Apr 23
S 2: $1.0205 – Low Mar 11
S 3: $1.0168 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 4: $1.0117 – 2013 low Mar 4
NZD/USD: Despite the bounce from the May 2 lows the pair needs to close above the Apr 30 high to see focus turn to spikes above the 21 day upper Bollinger band and retests of the 2013 high. While the Apr 30 high caps we will look for an initial test of the $0.8337-74 support region. Below this region then sees the pair targeting the 2013 and Mar monthly low at $0.8164.
R 4: $0.8676 – High Apr 11
R 3: $0.8643 – High Apr 12
R 2: $0.8619 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 1: $0.8583 – High Apr 30
Latest price: 0.8530
S 1: $0.8460 – Low May 2
S 2: $0.8374 – 100 day moving average
S 3: $0.8337 – Low Mar 25
S 4: $0.8292 – Previous daily resistance now support
AUD/JPY: The rising daily trend line off the Nov monthly lows confirmed its significance once again last week with the AUD/JPY having bounced over 200pts following the brief dip below. Immediate focus is now on a retest of the Apr 22 high with overall focus on the 2013 high. We will continue to look for a close below the Apr 16 low as confirmation of a break of the current up-trend and a subsequent shift lower in focus to the Jpy92.50 level
R 4: Jpy105.4 – 2013 high Apr 11
R 3: Jpy104.9 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 2: Jpy103.8 – High Apr 15
R 1: Jpy102.9 – High Apr 22
Latest price: 102.24
S 1: Jpy99.81 – Rising daily trend line
S 2: Jpy98.94 – Low Apr 16
S 3: Jpy96.95 – Low Apr 2
S 4: Jpy96.44 – 100 day moving average
USD/KRW: The cross traded at 7 week lows on Friday and has paused just above the layers of support noted in the Krw1087.7-1094.region. At present the overall focus remains on retests of the Krw1077-82 support region until the pair can manage a close back above the Apr 29 high. For now the pair needs to close above the Apr 30 high to relieve the immediate bearish pressure. Daily tech studies are in oversold territory and may slow the move lower a little.
R 4: Krw1133.6 – High Apr 12
R 3: Krw1125.5 – High Apr 18
R 2: Krw1110.1 – High Apr 29
R 1: Krw1105.0 – High Apr 30
Latest price: 1095.5
S 1: Krw1094.1 – Low Mar 12
S 2: Krw1092.6 – 100 day moving average
S 3: Krw1089.9 – 61.8% retracement of 1054.5-1147.2 move
S 4: Krw1087.7 – Ichimoku cloud base
USD/SGD: The pair remains heavy with spikes below the 21 day lower Bollinger band (Sgd1.2313) expected as the pair continues to target a move lower that initially tests the Jan 10 low and then the 2013 low beneath. Topside the pair needs to close above the 21-DMA to relieve the immediate bearish focus while a close above the falling channel top is needed to call an end to the current down trend
R 4: Sgd1.2436 – High Apr 24
R 3: Sgd1.2410 – Falling daily channel top
R 2: Sgd1.2391 – High Apr 26
R 1: Sgd1.2373 – 21 day moving average
Latest price: 1.2335
S 1: Sgd1.2306 – Low May 1
S 2: Sgd1.2224 – Low Jan 10
S 3: Sgd1.2198 – 2013 low Jan 2
S 4: Sgd1.2169 – Low Dec 18 2012