– We expect the headline CPI to rise by 0.9% in QI (3.0%pa).
– The underlying CPI on our forecasts will print at 0.6% (2.5%pa).
– Inflation doesn’t feature much in the economic debate at present.
– Upside risks to QI come from indications of less retail discounting.
– Downside risks come from a more drawn out AUD effect.
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Commonwealth Bank