USD: The Dollar could not sustain a recovery from overnight pressure and is posting moderate losses this morning, although prices have held within their recent trading range in spite of the turbulence seen throughout global markets. Yesterday’s Empire State and NAHB readings extended a string of lukewarm US data points, which clearly helped to dampen the Dollar’s safe-haven appeal versus the Yen. Today’s set of top-tier US economic numbers could go a long way towards providing some underlying support for the Dollar, particularly if the Housing Starts and Permits numbers can maintain their recent strength. Global risk appetites are showing signs of improvement, which will likely keep prices on the defensive, but the Dollar should be able to stay well clear last week’s lows as safe-haven funds shift back from Yen into Dollars. The Dollar may slide down towards the 82.25 area later today as risk aversion continues to fade this morning.
EURO: The June Euro has overcome some choppy trading over the past few hours, and has clearly found benefit from a steady improvement in risk attitudes this morning. News that the German ZEW survey dropped more than 12 points this month, coming in much lower than expected, was unable to derail today’s early recovery. While there are plenty of unresolved issues around the peripheral EU, a lack of fresh risk headlines from that region has helped the Euro to hold within this recent consolidation price range. If today’s rebound in global risk sentiment can gain further steam, the Euro should be able to maintain upside momentum. The June Euro may rise up towards the 131.15 level later this morning, but a further rally up into new high ground may require some substantive signs of progress from one of the EU’s multiple problem-spots.
YEN: The June Yen has seen a severe change of fortune over the past 12 hours as prices have dropped sharply away from yesterday afternoon’s highs. Liquidation pressure from metals, energy and US equity markets provided plenty of fuel for the Yen’s recent rally, but the market appears to have held firm at the mid-March lows just below the 104.00 level. Risk appetites are showing early signs of improvement, which has been more than enough to send money flowing out of the Yen in a hurry. It may be too early to see a resumption of the Yen’s longer-term downtrend, but it is unlikely that the market will retest this week’s highs without global risk sentiment turning decidedly negative once again. The June Yen is likely to slide further down towards the 101.75 area later in the session, and will continue losing safe-haven support to the Dollar as global markets regain their footing.
CHF: The June Swiss is posting moderate gains this morning, but is showing little inclination for taking this month’s rally up into new high ground. A higher than expected reading for Swiss PPI will provide some mild support, but the Swiss Franc will need to see continued improvement with global risk sentiment in order to build upon recent gains. The June Swiss could rise up towards the 107.90 level later today, but is likely to need much calmer global risk conditions before fully regaining upside momentum.
GBP: The June Pound was able to put the brakes on yesterday’s downdraft, but has plenty of work left to do in order to climb back towards last week’s highs. Today’s UK inflation data was generally in-line with expectations, and remains strong enough to give the Bank of England second thoughts on starting up fresh easing measures during the near future. The June Pound may climb up towards the 153.46 level during today’s session, but will need to see a stronger tone from outside markets in order to climb up into new high ground over the next few sessions.
CAD: The June Canadian has been able to climb further away from yesterday’s new monthly low this morning, but still remains far below last week’s high for the move. An extended recovery with energy and metals prices will provide some badly-needed support, but the Canadian Dollar may need to get past this week’s Bank of Canada meeting before it can fully recover from recent losses. The June Canadian may rise up towards the 97.85 area later in today’s session, and is likely to find additional support from a positive reception for today’s US economic data as well.
EasyForexNews Research Team