AUD/USD: Ends Last Week Below 200-DMA. The pair closed last week below the 200-DMA which adds weight to the bearish case but the pair now needs to take out the $1.0346-52 support region which includes the 38.2% Fibonacci level. We will look for a close back above Friday’s high to signal a false break of the 200-DMA and shift focus back to the double daily top and Mar monthly high at $1.0497. Potential now exists for a retest of the 2013 lows with below $1.0346-52 needed to confirm.
RES 4: $1.0578 – Double Daily Top Jan 16 & 22
RES 3: $1.0529 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 2: $1.0497 – Monthly high Mar 26
RES 1: $1.0439 – High Apr 5
Latest price: 1.0368
SUP 1: $1.0352 – 38.2% Retracement of $1.0117-1.0497 move
SUP 2: $1.0346 – Low Mar 18
SUP 3: $1.0268 – Low Mar 12
SUP 4: $1.0205 – Low Mar 11
NZD/USD: Continues To Hold Above Initial Support. The cross continues to hold above initial support with immediate focus remaining on retests of the Feb 19 high. Back below the Apr 4 support is needed to relieve the immediate bullish focus while back below Mar 25 low is needed to shift focus lower. It is worth noting that the 100-DMA ($0.8330) and 21-DMA ($0.8321) are lurking just below the Mar 25 low increasing the significance of this support.
RES 4: $0.8568 – High Aug 31
RES 3: $0.8534 – 2013 high Feb 15
RES 2: $0.8489 – High Feb 19
RES 1: $0.8474 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
Latest price: 0.8407
SUP 1: $0.8365 – Low Apr 4
SUP 2: $0.8337 – Low Mar 25
SUP 3: $0.8292 – Previous daily resistance now support
SUP 4: $0.8157 – Monthly low Dec 26
AUD/JPY: No Pause Expected Until Jpy104.00. Given that the pair held above the Jpy100.00 level that previously capped indicates that the pair is now likely to remain confined to a Jpy100-105 region and work its way towards the psychological Jpy105.00 resistance level. The long term rising channel on the weekly chart is indicating an immediate move up to the Jpy104.00 level at present before any significant pause is expected. Daily techs still have plenty of room to move topside.
RES 4: Jpy105.0 – Psychological resistance
RES 3: Jpy104.5 – 2008 high Jul 21
RES 2: Jpy104.0 – Rising long term channel top
RES 1: Jpy103.4 – High Jul 28 2008
Latest price: 101.84
SUP 1: Jpy99.98 – Low Apr 5
SUP 2: Jpy96.95 – Rising daily trend line
SUP 3: Jpy95.28 – Ichimoku cloud top
SUP 4: Jpy94.45 – Low Mar 1
USD/KRW: Pauses Ahead Of Sept Monthly High. USD rose sharply to fresh 6 month highs to end the week, closing above the rising daily channel top in the process. The pair paused ahead of the Sept 5 monthly high with initial support now seen at Friday’s low. A close back below the Apr 5 low is needed to relieve the immediate bullish focus while back below the Mar 14 low is needed to shift overall focus lower and back to retests of the 2012 lows.
RES 4: Krw1165.1 – High June 25
RES 3: Krw1158.1 – Monthly high July 12
RES 2: Krw1153.5 – High July 25
RES 1: Krw1139.5 – Monthly high Sept 5
Latest price: 1136.6
SUP 1: Krw1124.7 – Low Apr 5
SUP 2: Krw1110.9 – Low Apr 2
SUP 3: Krw1103.7 – 200 day moving average
SUP 4: Krw1101.7 – Low Mar 14
USD/SGD: Hovering Above 200-DMA. The cross continues to bounce around above the 200-DMA and below the Sgd1.2430 level as daily tech studies begin to slowly correct from oversold levels. A close above the 21-DMA remains needed to see focus shift from potential retests of the 2012 lows back to the 2013 highs. The Sgd1.2309-35 support region remains key for now with a close below needed to confirm a deeper correction is underway.
RES 4: Sgd1.2556 – High Aug 28
RES 3: Sgd1.2529 – 2013 High Mar 20
RES 2: Sgd1.2451 – 21 day moving average
RES 1: Sgd1.2427 – High Apr 4
Latest price: 1.2405
SUP 1: Sgd1.2372 – Ichimoku cloud top
SUP 2: Sgd1.2358 – 200 day moving average
SUP 3: Sgd1.2334 – Low Jan 30
SUP 4: Sgd1.2309 – Previous daily resistance now support
EasyForexNews Research Team