Mid-Day FX Market Analysis

EUR – Closed in NY at $1.3488 after rate had made two attempts to take out option barrier interest at $1.3500, with rate finding support during the session at $1.3460 on pullbacks. Asia kept focus on the barrier interest with trade through the overnight session contained by $1.3485/95, traders noting major Asian sovereign sell interest encountered in the $1.3490’s. Rate dipped to $1.3482 in the Asia/Europe transition, as traders probed for stops sub $1.3485. Dip quickly attracted demand which had rate edging back toward Tuesday’s NY high at $1.3498. A mix of buyers, with Swiss names getting attention, provided the push to take out barriers at $1.3500/05, with initial follow through taking rate to $1.3516. Profit take supply countered this move but corrective pullbacks held shallow (above $1.3500) with secondary buying taking the rate through next barrier at $1.3525 and on to $1.3537, with the break of euro-yen Apr’11 highs at Y123.33 assisting the move. Corrective pullbacks remain shallow, the rate trading around $1.3528 ($1.3529 200-week ma) late Europe morning, with traders eyeing next barrier interest at $1.3550.

GBP – Closed in NY at $1.5760 after rate saw highs of $1.5774 as it tracked euro-dollar’s stronger rally, aided by euro-sterling meeting resistance toward stg0.8570. Rate had drifted to $1.5733 before recovering into the NY close. Early selling into Asia pressed rate down to $1.5744 before buyers emerged to take it back to $1.5760. Once demand interest faded rate slipped to $1.5742 before edging back to $1.5750 into Europe. Euro-sterling consolidated Tuesday’s recovery in Asia, with trade contained within stg0.8556/68. Early targeting of the barrier at $1.3500 in euro-dollar took cable up to $1.5767, with euro-sterling seen reluctant to move above stg0.8570. Failure to trip stops above $1.5770/75, and euro-sterling break of stg0.8570, saw cable drop through the Asia base, tripping stops sub $1.5730 before picking up demand at $1.5726. The cross edged to Monday’s high at stg0.8586 before extending to stg0.8590, with stalling here allowing cable to play catch up, though met resistance ahead of $1.5760. The cross managed to extend to stg0.8596 but held off the stg0.8600 level on reports of barrier interest. Cable was retesting the $1.5767/70 late morning, as the cross held off highs.

JPY – Early demand for yen pairs ahead of the Tokyo fix was linked to Goto-bi Day interest, the rate lifted to an early high of Y91.03 before profit take sales above the figure was encountered. Euro-yen saw similar fix interest, pushing up from its open at Y122.40 to Y122.83 before settling between Y122.50/70. Dollar-yen opened on a bid tone in early Europe and lifted through Y91.00 on demand from US/Japanese and Macro names. Cross support extended gains and flushed stops on the move to Y91.31, before meeting supply from spec names, profit take sales from model/prop accounts added further weight. Euro-dollar’s break of $1.3500 gave euro-yen a boost in early trade and took out the Y123.00 barrier. Risk appetite continued and fresh demand extended through the Y123.50 barrier, flushing stops to print 21 month highs of Y123.73. Dollar-yen lifted in tandem to Y91.41 before the rate stalled as traders reminded of large option interest due to roll off on Thursday, the strikes set between Y90.00-91.50.

 

EasyForexNews Research Team