Developed macro
1. The US House of Representatives passes the debt ceiling increasing plan and more attention will revert to the rate decision and data front.
2. US June Income and Outlays to show small gains.
3. US Vehicle sales expected to increase in July.
Interest rate strategy
1. Bunds may get driven further if US and UK markets increase their speculation of additional QE.
2. Today’s Gilt auction could prove insightful as speculators on QE may be interested.
3. Technical pictures remain bullish. The T-note future is now above June highs.
FX strategy
1. USD: Dollar-default obstacle removed, relief rally to follow.
2. CHF: Ignoring softer data for now.
3. AUD: Patient RBA stance unaffected recent inflation report.
Emerging markets
1. Indian INR OIS rate curve inverts further on hawkish RBI comments; time for dis-inversion bets is nearing.
2. Chinese central bank bill auction in focus: no change in yield could push CNY IRS rates down.
3. Asian FX still highly dependent on equity flows; valuations favour KRW relative to IDR.
4. Brazilian industrial output to disappoint.
Commodity markets
1. A “yes” vote by Congress to prompt gold to sell-off?
2. Base metals: Weak US data a double-edged sword?
Click here to read the full report:
http://www.easyforexnews.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/WMT_2011-08-02.pdf
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