Summary:
AUD/USD has spent very little time outside the broad 1.04-1.08 range since May, with underlying USD weakness and confidence in Asia’s resilience cushioning the pair despite a clear deterioration in Australia’s outlook. Given the risks from the US and Europe we see the range-break as more likely to the downside multi-week, with scope for 1.02 and potentially towards parity.
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Sean Callow
Westpac Global Markets Strategy Group