AUD/USD: Marginally Dips Below 21-DMA. The AUD/USD ended last week looking a little soft after 4 consecutive lower daily lows but the pair needs to close below the 21-DMA to see initial focus turn to the 200-DMA and overall focus turn to Oct monthly lows. In saying that, relatively flat 21 day Bollinger bands are suggesting continued sideways trading within a $1.0326-1.0488 range.
RES 4: $1.0624 – Monthly high Sept 14
RES 3: $1.0518 – High Sept 21
RES 2: $1.0488 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 1: $1.0447 – High Nov 30
LATEST PRICE: 1.0424
SUP 1: $1.0407 – 21 day moving average
SUP 2: $1.0339 – Low Nov 21
SUP 3: $1.0326 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
SUP 4: $1.0308 – 200 day moving average
NZD/USD: Increased Risk Of 200-DMA Retest. The pair briefly dipped below the 21-DMA and we now look for a close below Friday’s low as confirmation of a break and a shift in focus back to retests of the Nov monthly lows. Topside there is a falling daily trend line off the Sept 28 highs coming in around $0.8279 to start the week which adds to layers of resistance in the $0.8265-0.8285 region.
RES 4: $0.8356 – Monthly high Sept 28
RES 3: $0.8307 – Monthly high Nov 7
RES 2: $0.8283 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 1: $0.8267 – High Nov 29
LATEST PRICE: 0.8201
SUP 1: $0.8177 – Low Nov 30
SUP 2: $0.8092 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
SUP 3: $0.8068 – 200 day moving average
SUP 4: $0.8013 – 100 week moving average
AUD/JPY: Consolidating At Lofty Levels. The Jpy85.27-86.43 range defined last week with a break lower needed to relieve immediate topside pressure, while above Nov 26 highs is needed to kick start topside momentum and see spikes above the upper 21 day Bollinger band recommence. Overall we continue to look for a close below the 21-DMA to see focus shift to Jpy81.99.
RES 4: Jpy87.57 – High Mar 27
RES 3: Jpy86.94 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 2: Jpy86.81 – Monthly high Apr 2
RES 1: Jpy86.43 – High Nov 26
LATEST PRICE: 86.05
SUP 1: Jpy85.27 – Low Nov 28
SUP 2: Jpy84.40 – 21 day moving average
SUP 3: Jpy84.17 – Low Nov 19
SUP 4: Jpy82.99 – Low Nov 15
USD/KRW: Fresh 2012 Lows Remain Favoured. The 21-DMA again confirmed its significance last week as USD/KRW again failed to manage a close above despite two spikes higher. The down trend will remain in play until we see a close above the 21-DMA. While the down trend remains we continue to target the falling daily channel base around Krw1157 as something of a moving target.
RES 4: Krw1117.4 – High Oct 11
RES 3: Krw1109.9 – Previous daily support now resistance
RES 2: Krw1094.4 – High Nov 16
RES 1: Krw1187.7 – 21 day moving average
LATEST PRICE: 1082.6
SUP 1: Krw1080.8 – 2012 low Nov 22
SUP 2: Krw1060.4 – Monthly low Sept 2
SUP 3: Krw1057.9 – Falling daily channel base
SUP 4: Krw1048.3 – 2011 low Aug 1
USD/SGD: Consolidates Below 21-DMA. Narrow ranges persist for USD/SGD as the pair now consolidates below the 21-DMA. While below the 21-DMA there is an increased risk of a retest of 2012 lows. The past 6 weeks has been defined by a Sgd1.2153-1.2296 range and USD/SGD is expected to remain confined to this range for the remainder of the year.
RES 4: Sgd1.2339 – High Sept 26
RES 3: Sgd1.2296 – High Nov 16
RES 2: Sgd1.2271 – Double daily top Nov 19 & 21
RES 1: Sgd1.2235 – 21 day moving average
LATEST PRICE: 1.2202
SUP 1: Sgd1.2187 – Low Oct 31
SUP 2: Sgd1.2153 – 2012 low Oct 22 2012
SUP 3: Sgd1.2074 – Low Sept 8 2011
SUP 4: Sgd1.2021 – Low Aug 31 2011
EasyForexNews Research Team