AUD/USD: Drifting Back Towards 21-DMA. Lower daily lows the past four days see the AUD/USD remaining heavy and drifting back towards the 21-DMA. We continue to look for a close below the Nov 20 lows as confirmation of a break of the 21-DMA and a subsequent shift in focus back to initial retests of the 200-DMA. While the 21-DMA supports a slight bullish bias remains.
RES 4: $1.0856 – 2012 high Feb 29
RES 3: $1.0624 – Monthly high Sept 14
RES 2: $1.0518 – High Sept 21
RES 1: $1.0486 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
LATEST PRICE: 1.0434
SUP 1: $1.0406 – 21 day moving average
SUP 2: $1.0359 – Low Nov 20
SUP 3: $1.0326 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
SUP 4: $1.0310 – 200 day moving average
NZD/USD: Potential Falling Daily Trend Line A Concern. COMMENTARY: Fresh 3 week highs for the Kiwi lacked follow through yesterday which could see the pair dip back towards the 21-DMA with a close below needed to shift focus lower. While above the 21-DMA we will continue to look for spikes above the 21 day upper Bollinger band. Of some concern is the hesitation ahead of the trend line off Sept 28 highs. RES 4: $0.8356 – Monthly high Sept 28.
RES 3: $0.8307 – Monthly high Nov 7
RES 2: $0.8293 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 1: $0.8267 – High Nov 29
LATEST PRICE: 0.8230
SUP 1: $0.8191 – 21 day moving average
SUP 2: $0.8089 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
SUP 3: $0.8069 – 200 day moving average
SUP 4: $0.8013 – 100 week moving average
AUD/JPY: Daily Tech Studies Correcting From O/B. AUD/JPY is trading sideways at the upper end of the month’s range as daily tech studies continue to gently correct from very overbought levels. A close below the Nov 28 low is needed to relieve immediate topside pressure while a close below the 21-DMA is needed to end the up trend that has been in play since early Oct.
RES 4: Jpy87.57 – High Mar 27
RES 3: Jpy86.81 – Monthly high Apr 2
RES 2: Jpy86.74 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 1: Jpy86.43 – High Nov 26 LATEST PRICE: 85.68
SUP 1: Jpy85.27 – Low Nov 28
SUP 2: Jpy84.28 – 21 day moving average
SUP 3: Jpy84.17 – Low Nov 19
SUP 4: Jpy82.99 – Low Nov 15
USD/KRW: Fresh 2012 Lows Remain The Focus. Despite two spikes above the 21-DMA this week the pair hasn’t managed to close above which retains overall focus on potential fresh 2012 lows. The falling daily channel base comes in around Krw1058.6 today and we continue to use this as something of a moving target until the USD/KRW can manage a close above the 21-DMA.
RES 4: Krw1117.4 – High Oct 11
RES 3: Krw1109.9 – Previous daily support now resistance
RES 2: Krw1094.4 – High Nov 16
RES 1: Krw1188.1 – 21 day moving average
LATEST PRICE: 1083.2
SUP 1: Krw1080.8 – 2012 low Nov 22
SUP 2: Krw1060.4 – Monthly low Sept 2
SUP 3: Krw1058.6 – Falling daily channel base
SUP 4: Krw1048.3 – 2011 low Aug 1
USD/SGD: Dips Below Lower Bollinger Band. USD/SGD has managed to marginally take out the Nov 7 lows and dip below the 21 day lower Bollinger band (Sgd1.2202) which sees focus return to retests of the 2012 lows. We don’t expect to much downside given the proximity of the 21 day lower Bollinger band with the broad Sgd1.2155-1.2296 range expected to define during the coming month.
RES 4: Sgd1.2372 – High Sept 11
RES 3: Sgd1.2339 – High Sept 26 RES 2: Sgd1.2296 – High Nov 16
RES 1: Sgd1.2271 – Double daily top Nov 19 & 21
LATEST PRICE: 1.2202
SUP 1: Sgd1.2187 – Low Oct 31
SUP 2: Sgd1.2153 – 2012 low Oct 22 2012
SUP 3: Sgd1.2074 – Low Sept 8 2011
SUP 4: Sgd1.2021 – Low Aug 31 2011
EasyForexNews Research Team