Around the US Thanksgiving holiday, we expect a subdued trading session. However, several JPY-bearish signals are already cast in stone, and the risk is for further JPY weakness into year end. CAD/JPY is on the verge of closing above its 200-week average, a level that has capped the downtrend since 2008, and EUR/JPY is gaining bullish traction towards its weekly cloud top (having overthrown the 105.70 objective). In Asia, the Shanghai Composite has struggled to break decisively below 2000 on several occasions, and the risks are increasing for a near-term bounce within the larger ongoing downtrend.
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Barclays Capital